Santa Rosa has a plan to close a projected $17.5 million budget deficit in the fiscal year that starts July 1. It will put off the worst pain for at least one more year, but the city cannot avoid a serious fiscal reckoning forever.

Chief Financial Officer Scott Wagner warned the City Council and the public that the situation is “stark and sobering.” Without new revenue, Santa Rosa will face a fourth straight year of cuts. The city might have to lay off about 60 people as soon as 2027.

Depending on where leaders look to make reductions, emergency services, police specialty teams, recreation programs and public works could take a hit. In other words, everything is on the table. The public will feel the impact.

If all the staffing cuts occur, the city might employ fewer people than it did coming out of the Great Recession. Fewer city employees will mean fewer services.

Santa Rosa’s finance staff suggests restructuring pension debt, financing fire apparatus, not filling vacancies and dipping into reserves. That might balance the budget for now, but structural issues would remain.

The local sales tax is the city’s single largest source of revenue, but it has slumped for the past three years as people spend less on goods in local shops. The revenue cannot keep up with ever-increasing payroll and benefit costs, which now consume nearly three-quarters of the general fund.

Voters have hardly been stingy with local government funding measures. Since 1990, they have passed or extended more than a half-dozen countywide sales taxes for transportation, libraries, parks, open space, fire prevention and response, childcare, mental health and homelessness. Santa Rosa voters renewed a quarter-cent public safety tax for 20 years in 2022. They also passed Measure Q, the city’s half-cent general sales tax that generates about $20 million per year until 2030. The city likely will be back with a successor to Measure Q. Polling commissioned by Santa Rosa shows qualified support for renewing it and possibly doubling it to a full cent.

At a minimum, the city should ask voters to lock in a renewal early in case it needs to ask twice. Simply letting the tax expire would be a self-inflicted disaster.

There may be a case for increasing it to a full cent, but it would be a tougher sell. At least sales taxes shift some local tax burden onto tourists and other shoppers from out of town.

More revenue alone will not balance the books over the long term. The city has been living unsustainably on rising property values, generous labor contracts and new programs.

This budget conversation arrives at an awkward moment. The council is hiring a new city manager, and three council seats are on the November ballot. Officials will make some choices now, but harder ones will fall to new leadership next year.

Santa Rosa is not alone in its fiscal straits. The state faces billions of dollars in structural deficits, and Sacramento’s options are no better than the local ones. Indeed, as legislators and the next governor try to improve the situation, their decisions might exacerbate local challenges if they cut state funding for localities.

Santa Rosa reached this point incrementally over years. Now residents must prepare themselves for higher taxes and fewer services.