As fires continue ravaging Southern California, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’s time in office is rapidly appearing tenuous, as she is widely seen as having failed to prepare for what has taken place.

To be sure, this tragedy is still unfolding, and the first priority must be putting out the fires and beginning to rebuild. Thus far, more than 20 people have perished, over 100,000 remain displaced and reconstruction efforts will be monumental.

And yet, while a natural disaster should not be politicized, in this case, the failures at all levels of state and local government have rendered this a political issue.

Put another way, in the midst of a crisis, voters want their elected officials to display leadership and competency, something that thus far, voters are unlikely to believe Bass has done. All of this leaves her very politically vulnerable.

Much of the controversy surrounds Bass’s decision to travel to Ghana after she was warned about the risk of fires in the L.A. area, but multiple missteps along the way have compounded her initial problem.

Newly released pictures showing her at a cocktail party in Ghana after evacuation orders were issued, the lack of adequate water levels in hydrants, and her now very public efforts to cut the budget of the L.A. Fire Department have all fed beliefs that she is not up to the job.

In addition to the controversy surrounding Bass’s trip, she remains vulnerable due to her seeming failure to prepare and her own decisions as mayor.

In her May budget for the city, Bass slashed the firefighting funds by $17 million, rerouting money toward other issues like pervasive homelessness.

And last December, L.A. fire Chief Kristin Crowley submitted a report to Bass saying that the budget cut had “severely” impacted the LAFD’s ability to “mitigate wildland fires and other hazards effectively.”

Crowley’s report also asked for an increase of nearly 160 firefighters. Yet, Bass and the City Council cut the number of active firefighters.

Recently, Crowley seemed to put the blame directly on City Hall, saying that the budget cuts left the city without necessary resources, leading to awkward speculation that Bass had fired her.

While Bass and Crowley ultimately denied those rumors, and Crowley remains in her position, that speculation began in the first place suggests dysfunction or disunity inside the mayor’s office.

Further, Bass had been struggling with perceptions of her leadership even before the fires. Last year, her favorability rating sat at just 42% per UCLA polling, which also found that, for the second time in two years, L.A. residents rated their quality of life at an all-time low.

In that same vein, how much support she has from Gov. Gavin Newsom is unknown.

Newsom’s decision to launch an independent probe into failures at the city and county level at the start of the fires suggest that he could well look to deflect blame downward, and Bass, already politically wounded, is the most likely target.

At the same time, her opponent in the 2022 mayoral election, former Republican turned centrist Democrat, Rick Caruso, has taken center stage.

Aside from swipes at Bass, he displayed at least some semblance of leadership, directing a team of private firefighters in Palisades to protect his properties and those of neighboring families.

Thus, Caruso has emerged as a leading challenger to Bass in 2026, yet it remains to be seen how voters, many of whom lost homes or other possessions, will respond to his decision to use private firefighters.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, local politicos had already been pushing Caruso to run again in 2026 before the fires began, and Bass’s actions will do nothing to silence calls for new leadership.

Three years ago, Bass, a longtime Democratic politician, beat Caruso by 10 points (55% to 45%) to become the first African-American female mayor of L.A.

But, given Bass’s multiple missteps before and during this emergency, there is growing momentum behind removing the mayor either through recall or by election.

If history is any guide, Bass has at least one reason she could see her ratings improve: history has shown that voters tend to react positively to local officials following disasters as rebuilding efforts get underway.

Following Hurricane Sandy, then-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie saw his approval rating soar 19 points. And after 9/11, then-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s approval rating jumped 36%.

That being said, Los Angeles has never experienced a fire of this magnitude, let alone one combined with the obvious political failures, rendering historical comparisons somewhat moot. But still, history does suggest that it may be premature to write Bass’s political obituary.

If Bass can successfully lead rebuilding efforts and survive her recall — history seems to be on her side; only one of the last seven recalls in California have succeeded — she may see her ratings improve just in time for the 2026 election.

However, rebuilding efforts — which will also require a fight with state and federal authorities — will be even more complex. Soon to be President Donald Trump has long been critical of California’s government, and has little incentive to extend federal support.

At this point, it remains to be seen just how vulnerable Bass is due to her perceived failure to prepare and then respond to the fires.

What can be said, however, is that how Bass handles these challenges will determine the rest of her political future.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.