California almond growers are on track for their second-largest harvest in history, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture projecting a 2025 crop of 3 billion meat pounds, up 10 percent from last year’s total of 2.73 billion.

It’s unclear how the larger crop may affect prices, which often fluctuate due to global supply and demand, trade policies and shipping conditions. Still, strong international demand continues to support the market, said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California.

More than three-quarters of California’s almond harvest is exported, and the state produces 80 percent of the global supply. In 2023, almonds brought in $4.4 billion in foreign sales, making it California’s top valued agricultural export commodity.

Sacramento has long had a stake in the almond industry. For 115 years, Blue Diamond Growers — the world’s largest almond processor and marketer — has operated its headquarters and a massive 50-acre plant in midtown, where almonds were roasted, packaged and shipped around the world.

Earlier this year, Blue Diamond announced it would shutter the Sacramento plant and streamline operations in Turlock and Salida, despite decades of the city working to keep them in town. The move will affect about 600 jobs.

This year’s almond yield is forecast at 2,160 pounds per acre, up from 1,980 in 2024, according to the USDA report, which was released last week. But the average kernel weight slipped slightly — down 0.6 percent from last year.

“It is often observed that nut size and nuts per tree are inversely correlated,” Turner said in an email response to questions.

Farmers faced a rocky start to the season as February storms brought rain, hail and wind that hampered pollination, the USDA report said. And almond-bearing acreage hasn’t grown since last year, following three years of decline in planting new, young trees, according to the Land IQ 2025 Initial Acreage Estimate.

But conditions turned around in March, with warm weather and well-timed rain helping the crop mature through spring and early summer. Harvest is expected to kick off on time in August and continue through October.

Although the USDA’s “Objective Measurement” report aims for a rigorous sampling process — this year sampling from 1,892 trees across 946 orchards — the final crop size doesn’t always match projections, according to the report. In the past two years, the agency has overestimated production; last year’s harvest fell 2.5 percent below the 2.8 billion pounds forecast.

Turner said some variance is to be expected. In addition to the USDA forecast, several other industry forecasts help growers and buyers assess conditions throughout the season.

To promote global demand and support the state’s nearly 8,000 almond growers, the Almond Board continues to invest in international marketing and product innovation, Turner said.

“Almonds are an exceptional ingredient for clean-label and plant-based products that meet consumer demand for protein, fiber and healthy fats,” she said.