The presidential race did not go the way the vast majority of Santa Cruz County residents wanted. Donald Trump will be the nation’s 47th president.
Nationally, for Democrats, the reasons and recriminations, much less the angst, over this stunning result are only just beginning as Harris under performed Joe Biden’s 2020 margins nearly across the board (especially among Latino voters but also Black men who may have been reluctant to vote for a female candidate).
Among the primary reasons she lost: The economy. Exit polls showed a sizable majority of voters made their decision based on worries about inflation.
Nor did Harris provide a coherent message about how she would govern differently than an unpopular president, much less govern at all.
In retrospect, Joe Biden waited too long to drop out after (or before) his disastrous performance in the June debate and was anything but a positive force for her campaign. He left Harris a narrow window to build a winning coalition, though in the aftermath of her nomination, she raised nearly $1 billion and outspent the next president.
Then there’s this: Progressive Democrats have overreached on so-called culture issues — with the exception of abortion — alienating working class and rural voters along with many independents.
And celebrity endorsements and media bias, which the Harris campaign seemed to depend on over the past several weeks, don’t equal election victories, and may be another turnoff to those same working class and rural voters who apparently wanted to send a message to the “elitists” who also seemed unprepared to speak truthfully about the impacts of inflation.
And immigration, for better or worse, was a potent issue for Trump and one he promises he’ll quickly move on, along with opening up oil drilling (and listening to Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.).
Democrats, who thought Trump would be easy to defeat after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, four indictments, and 35 felony convictions underestimated the Trump bloc and made a huge mistake by engaging in the same kind of name calling he traffics in (“fascism,” “Nazi”).
So now, after this stunning victory and an unparalleled political comeback, a divided country moves into Trump II, as his opponents fear he’ll unleash a new wave of authoritarianism and reprisals, much as he promised during his rallies over the past few months. The New York Times said Wednesday: “His victory signaled the advent of isolationism, sweeping tariffs and score settling.”
This time around, he’ll govern having won the popular vote and with a Republican majority in the Senate and perhaps the House.
Moving to local and state races (and we’ll revisit these as more votes are counted in future days), this much can be certain: Despite California’s deep blue political shade, voters were anything but progressive on several high-profile measures. Especially crime.
As expected, Proposition 36, which increased penalties and the possibility of prison time for repeat theft offenders and drug dealers was overwhelmingly supported by Californians of all political stripes, including in progressive Santa Cruz County. A progressive prosecutor lost big in LA, and Alameda County’s even more progressive DA was recalled by voters (along with Oakland’s mayor), as voters in liberal cities revolted against increased crime.
And on rent control — Prop. 33 that would have given cities more power to impose rent control — state and Santa Cruz County voters rejected this latest attempt hands down.
Lowering the vote threshold to 55%, Prop. 5, to allow local governments to pass affordable housing bonds also went down.
The state school bond measure, Prop. 2, seems likely to pass, along with the climate bond, Prop. 4. Locally most school bonds were slightly leading with the exception of Live Oak School District’s, which was trailing badly Wednesday morning.
Locally voters came out in support for Measure Q, the county wildlife and water initiative. The Santa Cruz soda tax, Measure Z, is leading and seems likely to pass (and end up in court). The Central Fire District Measure R bond needed state Prop. 5 to pass so it wouldn’t need a two-thirds majority. It didn’t.
And in the two supervisorial races, Monica Martinez seems on her way to winning in the 1st District, while Kim De Serpa was leading in the 2nd.