Q >> A couple of weeks ago, Bo Nix had a game where he couldn’t hit the side of the proverbial barn. (Against Kansas City in Week 18) he couldn’t miss. What was the reason for the difference?
— Roger Brisnehan, Westminster
Gabriel >> Without a doubt, the defense has something to do with the differences. Kansas City was playing without several of its top guys. Next Gen Stats put Steve Spagnuolo’s group at about half its normal blitz rate, which led to a minuscule 9.4% pressure rate against Nix. That and throwing to your guys against mostly backups is going to make any quarterback much more comfortable.
Certainly, there was a stretch of three games — all wins, incidentally — where Nix got a little bit sideways down the stretch. During that stretch against Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis, Nix threw six touchdowns but also five interceptions (add in four over the first two weeks, and his turnovers have come in bunches). In those games, he completed 57.2% of his passes and had a passer rating of 75.5. Not great.
Over the final three games, Nix threw nine touchdowns and one pick, had a passer rating of 126 and, of course, the Broncos lost twice before knocking off the far-from-motivated Chiefs.
Another element here is just that Nix, for as much good as he’s done for the Broncos this year, is still a rookie. There are going to be ups and downs. He has done a good job of smoothing a lot of that stuff out and I’m sure he’d say that the others in the Broncos’ quarterback room and the coaching staff overall have played roles in that. It’s what quarterbacks coach Davis Webb set out to do from the start.
Q >> It seems like Bo Nix plays better when Sean Payton simplifies the offense. After the bye week, Nix looked like he did early in the season. Is Payton simply giving Nix too much to process, or have defenses figured out how to stifle the intermediate passing game?
— Keep it Simple Sam, Clarksville, Tenn.
Gabriel >> I’m not sure if it’s as simple — heh — as you make it out to be and I’m also not sure if it’s Payton at the center of this conversation. His game plans and his approach have a major influence week to week, but I wonder if it’s more about Nix himself keeping it simple.
Obviously, it’s not possible from the outside to know for sure what the intention, thought process, execution and grade for every play of every game is. But watching Nix play all season, I thought that there were times against Cleveland and Indianapolis, in particular, when he just pushed the aggressive stick a little too far.
It’s a fine line because Nix also takes criticism for how often he throws short and all of that. We’ve seen that he’s got the ability to push the ball down the field. When he threw those three interceptions against the Colts, the thing that jumped out was that they were all on ill-advised passes.
Nix has definitely put the ball in harm’s way at times this year — his 12 picks are tied for fourth-most in the league and they’ve come in clumps — but overall I think you’d have to say that he’s done a pretty darn good job for a rookie. His overall interception percentage of 2.1% is right at the league average and he hasn’t lost a fumble all season, so he’s not a turnover-prone player.