The Metropolitan Council has announced that it will “explore” abandoning its long-struggling Northstar Commuter Rail Service, which failed to capture strong ridership even before the pandemic. The Met Council said the 40-mile commuter train route from downtown Minneapolis to Big Lake likely will transition to bus service in the coming months.

The train, which launched in November 2009 and makes stops at stations in Elk River, Ramsey, Anoka, Coon Rapids and Fridley, has long been viewed as a weak link in the metro’s public transit offerings. Officials hoped 900,000 riders would board the train within its first year alone. Ridership never met projections from the start, and then plummeted from 700,000 to 800,000 annual riders before the pandemic to just 97,000 riders in 2023, according to a recent Minnesota Department of Transportation study.

The Twin Cities-St. Cloud-Fargo/Moorhead Corridor study “makes it clear we can provide more cost-effective transit service in the corridor currently being served by Northstar Commuter Rail,” reads the Met Council announcement, which was issued jointly with MnDOT.

Operating cost vs. revenue

Northstar’s operating cost in 2023 was about $11.6 million, while it recovered little more than $323,000 in revenue at the farebox — a relatively paltry farebox recovery ratio of 2.8%.

In 2019, the 50 U.S. transit agencies with the highest operating expenses held an average farebox recovery ratio of 36%, with wide variation, according to the ENO Center for Transportation, though those ratios have dropped since the pandemic as a result of ridership declines in the era of remote work and an increase in fare evasion.

“As the world and consumer demand changes, we must be willing to be flexible and innovative to offer better service while saving dollars,” reads the statement. “We have jointly started the process to explore transitioning to bus service in this corridor.”

The two transportation authorities said they will work with federal partners and rail partners at BNSF Railway, and develop a timeline with projected cost savings.

At the Capitol

A House bill introduced by state Rep. Jon Koznick, R-Lakeville, the chair of the Transportation Finance and Policy Committee, has sought permission from the Federal Transit Administration to discontinue Northstar service without repaying federal funds used to launch it, which he described as a “key financial obstacle to ending the line.”

At a Monday hearing, members of the transportation committee moved it another step closer to a House floor vote. Koznick said the savings from Northstar could be used to fund other transportation options.

“It’s time to mothball this boondoggle,” he said. “It has low ridership, it has huge operating subsidies and ridiculous maintenance cost.”

Northstar proponents, meanwhile, said the line never reached its potential because federal funding ran out before it could connect with St. Cloud. Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee, said it would be the equivalent of cutting off Interstate 94 at Monticello, 25 miles southeast of St. Cloud.

“We need to make sure that we’re connecting populations,” he told Koznick ahead of the vote. “It just doesn’t do that today and it would be significantly better if it did.”

The Metropolitan Council is in the “early stages” of talks with the Federal Transit Administration and the BNSF about plans to shift funding away from Northstar, Council Chair Charlie Zelle told House lawmakers at the hearing.

“We know that it is possible and we know that we have broad bipartisan support to do what’s effective to enhance transit, not to squander the federal funds,” he said. “If those resources can be deployed more effectively for this area of the metro, we think we could do, actually, a better job.”