To combat climate change, California aims to expand organic production as part of its strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.

But the push to bolster organic farming practices comes as certified organic acreage nationwide and in California has trended down in recent years. Farmers cite ongoing challenges that could work against the state’s plan and say markets and economics—not mandates—will ultimately drive acreage.

Assembly Bill 1757—signed into law in 2022—requires the state to convert 10% of its cropland to organic production by 2030, 15% by 2038 and 20% by 2045.

Of the state’s 24.2 million acres used to grow crops and raise livestock in 2022, some 1.8 million acres were certified organic, or about 7.4%. That’s down from a high of nearly 2.2 million acres in 2020, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

Farmers point to various reasons for the acreage decline, including falling organic price premiums that have made organic farming less attractive. The three-year transition and the extra cost and paperwork to become certified organic has long been a barrier for some small farms. In addition, some farmers have increasingly turned to other “green” labels such as regenerative and sustainable to market their products, and land managed under these alternative programs doesn’t count toward the state targets.

To increase organic acreage, Yolo County farmer Jim Durst said the state should try to improve the farmer’s bottom line. While a farmer’s belief in organic farming practices can help move the needle, he said, “what drives it more is profit margin.” With the cost of doing business in California continuing to rise and inflation chipping away at farm earnings, Durst said the higher prices farmers earn for using organic practices have not been as lucrative in recent years.

“If growers feel like they can get a fair price for the extra expense, they’ll do it, regardless of their conviction” in organic farming, Durst added. “Their conviction is: I need to make money at it.”

Merced County farmer Scott Magneson, who no longer farms organically, can relate. He transitioned his dairy because the higher price for organic milk allowed his operation to stay smaller, around 500 cows. But to meet the national organic standards, which require cows to get 30% of their dry matter intake from grazing, he had to convert most of his ground to pasture, including land used to grow feed. That meant having to buy more feed.

When organic milk prices were strong, Magneson said the extra cost penciled out. But as the market tumbled, running an organic dairy got “more and more expensive.”

“I’m really disenfranchised with the whole organic thing,” he said. “I’m still trying to dig out of the hole we got into.”

After selling his cows, Magneson also dropped the organic certification on his ground, as there were limited market outlets for organic feed in his area after other organic dairies also closed their doors. The price for organic feed has been so low the past few years that “it hasn’t been worthwhile” growing it, he said.

Though his Sonoma County dairy has been organic for years, Domenic Carinalli said he has no plans to transition his vineyard to organic. Maintaining organic pasture for his cows is one thing, he said, but “it would be pretty hard” to grow winegrapes organically.

With the surge in organic milk prices in recent months, Carinalli said he has some room on his pasture to milk a few more cows, but he can’t increase organic acreage.

“I think all the land here that is viable for organic has been done,” he said. “They’re already certified organic, even the guys that raised hay.”

Ryan Galt, University of California, Davis, professor and director of the Agricultural Sustainability Institute, is leading a four-year research project that explores strategies for expanding organic practices statewide. He acknowledged the economics of organic “haven’t been playing out in (farmers’) favor,” especially for certain crops that have seen lingering low prices.

“If the state really does want to expand organic acreage, we’re going to have to expand organic markets,” Galt said.

The state can help by broadening procurement strategies, he said. In addition to boosting farm-to-school purchases, it could buy from farms for other state-run institutions. Think organic produce for hospitals and prisons.

To address cost barriers, Galt said other countries have allowed producer cooperatives to become certified. The cooperative would then enforce organic compliance among its members.

Having signed a new lease this spring on 40 acres, Solano County farmer Eric Walker said he and his brother will be expanding their organic fruit and vegetable production. They currently farm about 12 acres and “were just bursting at the seams” as local demand for their produce grew.

He said labor has been the “main concern” for increasing their acreage, considering the labor-intensive crops they grow. Walker said he thinks availability and cost of labor remain the key reason organic farmland has shrunk. Now that they have more land, he said they can do more tractor-based farming rather than rely on hand tools.

“That will save us a lot of time and labor, and we’ll be able to hire people for more of a short-term thing,” Walker said.

Fresno County farmer Todd Hirasuna, who grows organic and conventional processing tomatoes for Morning Star, said he thinks demand for organic products is closely tied to the economy. While he understands the merits of organic farming, he said he has not seen “consistent-enough demand to grow it exponentially in a short amount of time and be able to sustain that growth.”

“You can create whatever mandate or law that you want, but there’s got to be sufficient outlets at a premium that justifies the production,” Hirasuna said.

Transitioning to organic is “not an overnight success story,” he said, as it takes time, “and you’ve got to change the way you do things.” With processing tomatoes, there are some insect-borne diseases that are very tough to fight organically. On the west side of Fresno County, for example, perennial vine weed has been hard to control even conventionally, he said, and there are few herbicides that work well on it.

For Kings County farmer Ted Sheely, Fusarium wilt race 4, a fungal disease, is the main reason he’s not growing organic cotton anymore. He tried for five years and had buyers willing to up the premium for organic cotton. But he was losing 30% to 50% of his crop to the soil-borne pathogen, and even with the higher price, “I couldn’t make enough yield to pay the bills,” he said.

There are resistant varieties, Sheely noted, but they are genetically modified, and the national organic rules do not allow the use of GMO varieties. With organic cotton acreage so small, he said, few companies are willing to invest time and money to breed resistant varieties through conventional methods. Unless the organic rules change to allow GMOs and gene-edited plants, Sheely said certain plant diseases make organic production untenable.