Can Donald Trump be trusted? Can we rely on his judgment in a crisis? Those core questions have been raised by the president’s decision to reverse his campaign pledges and attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Much remains unknown and uncertain. How badly has Iran’s nuclear capacity been crippled? Is Tehran planning further retaliation? Will serious negotiations follow?

But we do know this: President Trump broke the promise he made in his inaugural address — “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” Most prominent Republicans have rallied around the president, but in a new CNN poll, 58% say his actions have increased the threat from Iran, while only 27% say security has improved.

A few Trump supporters have been willing to call out the president’s deception. Former Fox News star Tucker Carlson told radio host Steve Bannon, a key Trump adviser, that the president is risking “world war.” Bannon replied, “This thing has not been thought through. It does not have the support of the American people.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accused Trump of pulling “a complete bait and switch” on his supporters.

These criticisms raise a larger issue: How does Trump make decisions? Is he capable of long-range strategic thinking? He’s always been a mercurial character, responding to people or events or what he sees on Fox News. He’s even bragged, “I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due.”

That approach works well on reality TV — always keep them guessing! — but it works badly as an approach to governing. Trump failed the biggest test of his first term, the COVID-19 pandemic, and he drove the financial world crazy with his erratic behavior during the first months of his second term. Global markets, like global leaders, value stability, not chaos.

“Donald Trump’s presidency is often compared to a reality TV show,” writes The Spectator World, a Trump-friendly conservative magazine. “Yet that conceit barely captures the radical strangeness of his leadership. Trump is a hypnotist, a master of persuasion who tries to shape world events through CONFUSION, BIG BOMBS and CAPITAL LETTERS.”

That “radical strangeness” is severely aggravated by Trump’s incessant habit of posting anything at any time on social media. With a few taps on his cellphone, he can instantly alter national policy. One military official told The New York Times that as the raid on Iran unfolded, Trump jeopardized operational security by posting hints about possible plans.

Trump’s posts are often untethered to evidence, and reflect the concept of “alternative facts.” The Washington Post documented more than 30,000 “false or misleading” statements during his first term, and as CNN reports, his rate of fabrication continues: “President Donald Trump filled his first 100 days back in office with the same relentless lying and inaccuracy that was a hallmark of his first presidency and his 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns.”

That penchant for “relentless lying” can put him at odds with his own appointees, when they try to adhere to more rigorous standards of veracity. In one striking example, Trump’s own director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, told Congress last March that professional analysts continue “to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” But when he wanted to make the case for military action, Trump called his own adviser “wrong.”

Trump also insists that the raid “totally destroyed” Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but a leaked report from his own Defense Intelligence Agency directly contradicts the president, saying the damage will only impede Tehran for several months. Trump has illuminated another reason to distrust his leadership: his relentless campaign to exile any Republican who dares to cross him. After Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky suggested Trump’s raid was illegal because he had not consulted Congress, the president immediately announced support for a move to defeat the lawmaker next year.

The president has also assembled a White House staff of loyal lackeys. There’s no one like John Kelly, the former Marine general who served as chief of staff during Trump’s first term and continually reminded the president about the legal limits to his power.

“He certainly prefers the dictator approach to government,” Kelly told The New York Times. Trump “never accepted the fact that he wasn’t the most powerful man in the world — and by power, I mean an ability to do anything he wanted, anytime he wanted.”

After the Iran raid, Kelly’s words, and fears, have been strongly reinforced.

Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.