Some people rely on numbers like an inebriated man uses a lamppost: for support, not enlightenment. But percentage play is a necessary skill for declarer.

At six spades, South ruffed East’s queen of diamonds and drew trumps. He next took the A-K of hearts and ruffed a heart. When East threw a diamond, South led a club to dummy’s jack.

East won and led another diamond, and South ruffed and ran his trumps. He hoped for a 3-3 club break or a squeeze, but East-West discarded carefully, and South lost a club to East at the end.

Declarer’s play gave him many chances (and might have made an overtrick) but was inferior. After he draws trumps, he does best to duck a heart. He ruffs the diamond return, takes the A-K of hearts and ruffs a heart. Dummy’s last heart is good for the 12th trick.

South wins if hearts break 3-3 or 4-2 or if the club finesse wins. His chances are at least 92 percent. His actual play, as near as I can tell, was little better than 80 percent.

Daily question>> You hold: ? 9 6 ? A K 6 5 2 ? 9 6 3 ? K J 5. Your partner opens one spade, you bid two hearts and he rebids two spades. What do you say?

Answer>> You have enough strength to bid again, inviting game, and partner isn’t expecting you to pass now after you responded at the two level. Since his two spades doesn’t (in most partnerships) promise more than five spades, you can’t raise the spades. Bid 2NT despite your weak diamonds. The auction need not end there.

South dealer

Both side vulnerable

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