Rivian Automotive Inc. tumbled after warning it’s poised for a first-ever decline in electric-vehicle deliveries in 2025, heralding a new challenge after the company achieved a long-held profitability goal.

The EV maker on Thursday said it expects to sell between 46,000 and 51,000 plug-in SUVs, vans and pickups this year, down from 51,579 in 2024. Analysts had expected 54,800 deliveries on average for 2025, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Sales in the current quarter should total about 8,000 vehicles, fewer than Wall Street expected and below the more than 14,000 it tallied to close out 2024.

Rivian’s outlook factors in potential changes to tariffs, EV tax credits and regulatory policies under President Donald Trump that could weigh on sales, Rivian Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said in a Thursday interview. The downbeat forecast overshadowed fourth-quarter revenue and a $170 million gross profit in the period — Rivian’s first ever — that topped expectations.

“We, as much as everyone else, are very much closely watching what’s going to happen with tariffs around our supply chain, which will drive cost up and could ultimately lead to potential price changes,” he said.

The company’s shares fell as much as 7.2% as of 9:34 a.m. in New York on Friday.

While its fourth-quarter performance was a “solid beat,” the company’s outlook was “mixed to somewhat softer,” JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in a research note.

Automakers across the industry are bracing for the fallout from potentially major policy shifts enacted under President Donald Trump, who has taken steps to unwind regulations spurring EV production and threatened steep tariffs that would increase carmaker costs.

Rivian forecast an adjusted full-year 2025 loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion. That includes “hundreds of millions” of dollars in assumed impact from those policy shifts and lower demand, Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough said on the company’s earnings call.

Rivian’s EV output this year will also be limited by a planned one-month shutdown at its Illinois plant to complete work on a new assembly line for the upcoming R2 midsize SUV. The devastating wildfires in Los Angeles — one of Rivian’s largest markets — will also weigh on first-quarter deliveries, McDonough said.

Still, the company expects to record a “modest” gross profit for all of 2025 and made progress tackling supply chain problems and expenses that hampered its results last year. The company slashed the cost of each vehicle it sold in the most recent period, helping profit swing to nearly $12,000 per vehicle delivered compared to a $39,000 loss in the third quarter.

Changes to fuel economy and pollution regulations could also affect the marketplace for regulatory credits, a lucrative revenue stream for pure-play EV makers such as Rivian and Tesla Inc.

Revenue from those credits jumped by $260 million in the fourth quarter.

Scaringe told Bloomberg that credit sales that come from programs including California rules requiring carmakers to sell more zero-emission vehicles each year are “quite valuable” to the company.

The CEO said he expects little change to that regulatory system because it doesn’t impose a cost on the federal government.