“Let the process begin!” proclaimed President Donald Trump after his Monday phone call with President Vladimir Putin about beginning talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. And, after so much bloodshed, it’s a devout hope indeed. Pope Leo XIV wants to host the negotiations at the Vatican.

But to resolve this conflict, Trump needs to address the obstacles standing in the way of a breakthrough agreement. Putin right now won’t even accept a ceasefire. Trump indulged him by agreeing Monday that “the conditions for that (ceasefire) will be negotiated between the two parties, as it only can be, because they know details.” That’s a form of magical thinking.

Trump needs to organize this process more coherently or it will fail. The administration has used a confusing string of tactics: First, it proposed limited ceasefires for energy infrastructure and maritime domains. That went nowhere, so the Trump team told the two sides to draft term sheets. They were wildly disparate, so Trump turned to face-to-face talks. That ran aground in Istanbul, so on Monday it became a Trump-Putin process.

And now? Well, it seems Trump wants the parties to work it out themselves. This scattershot, ever-changing approach is a recipe for failure - and it reflects underlying mistaken assumptions.

The first and biggest problem is that Putin has shown no evidence that he wants peace. He still wants victory, which he described once again after Monday’s call with the phrase “eliminate the root causes of the crisis.” That’s code for his conviction that Ukraine cannot be a European country, as it wants, but must remain under Russian hegemony.

Putin launched the war on this illusion that Ukraine wasn’t a real nation and wouldn’t fight hard for its sovereignty. How wrong he was. Russia has suffered approximately 800,000 dead and wounded, and in three years its huge army hasn’t even managed to conquer Donetsk. When the guns go silent, Russia will begin to reckon with Putin’s stupendous folly. No wonder he prefers to keep fighting.

A second impediment is Trump’s notion that Russia represents a potential economic gold mine for the United States. Trump said it again Monday with characteristic hyperbole: “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth (when the war ends). Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

Trump has been fixated since the 1980s on the idea that Russia can be a business bonanza. This enthusiasm has been animated by Putin adviser Kirill Dmitriev, a Harvard Business School graduate who has met with Trump’s Russia envoy Steve Witkoff. But economists who study Russia say this vision is misplaced. Russia remains a corrupt, mismanaged economy, still largely dependent on exporting energy and minerals. In recent decades it has been a declining nation rather than a rising one.

If Trump had a more realistic economic appraisal, he would see a better economic bet in Ukraine. It’s far too corrupt, but the war has created an innovation ecosystem in Kyiv that may be the most productive in Europe.

A third misconception is that a crippled Ukraine can be compelled to surrender. Trump’s version of this doom scenario is the phrase “you have no cards,” which he repeats often to President Volodymyr Zelensky. But it turns out that Ukraine has one very powerful card, which is strong support from Europe.

The Europeans recognize that if Putin overwhelms Ukraine, he will rebalance security relations across the continent. They see evidence of his ambitions in new military bases bordering Finland and the Baltic states, and in Putin’s campaign of paramilitary sabotage against Ukraine’s supporters.

Trump won’t be able to stuff a bad deal down Zelensky’s throat because European allies are ready to resist. And they are at last developing the military muscle to make their views stick.

Ukraine can get an acceptable deal in the negotiations ahead if Putin sees that Kyiv is ready to keep fighting with European help - and a bit of needed satellite intelligence from the United States. I heard that confidence expressed by the senior cabinet ministers in Zelensky’s government during meetings in Kyiv this month. They want Trump’s peace initiative to succeed. But they’re preparing for the likelihood that it will fail.

Trump has been a persistent and passionate advocate of peace in Ukraine. He often refers to it as a “bloodbath,” as he did Monday. But, if he wants to succeed, he needs to realize that solving this conflict isn’t a quick “flip.” It’s closer to building a new factory than a real estate deal.

Trump has a chance to help mediate an agreement that would end the most violent conflict of our era. But if he doesn’t find the patience for hard and well-organized bargaining with Putin, Ukraine will have no choice but to fend for itself - leaving a black mark for Trump rather than a badge of honor.

David Ignatius is a Washington Post columnist.