Wisconsin, Florida may give GOP early warning signs

Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel makes his concession speech to a crowd Tuesday in Pewaukee, Wis. Andy Manis — ap

Victorious Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford speaks Tuesday in Madison, Wis. Kayla Wolf — the associated press

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By Jill Colvin and Maya Sweedler

The Associated Press

A trio of spring elections offered early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump as Democrats rallied against his efforts to slash the federal government and the outsize role being played by billionaire Elon Musk in the early days of his new administration.

In the marquee race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat Tuesday, the conservative judge endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk and his groups to the tune of $21 million lost by 10 percentage points in a state Trump won in November. And while Florida Republicans held two of the most pro-Trump House districts in the country, both candidates underperformed Trump’s November margins.

The elections — the first major contests since Trump’s return to power — were seen as an early measure of voter sentiment as Trump works with unprecedented speed to dramatically upend the federal government, clashing with the courts and seeking revenge as he tests the bounds of presidential power.

The party that loses the presidency in November typically picks up seats in the next midterm elections, and Tuesday’s results provided hope for Democrats.

Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races where Trump is not on the ballot..

“We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” he said in an X post, referring to low-propensity voters who don’t regularly cast ballots. “The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy.”

Wisconsin

Trump narrowly won Wisconsin in November by fewer than 30,000 votes. In the first major test since he took office in January, the perennial battleground state shifted significantly to the left.

Sauk County, northwest of the state capital of Madison, is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes. Sauk shifted 16 percentage points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal backed by national Democrats and billionaire donors like George Soros.

Besides strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.

In interviews with dozens of voters across the state, including more than 20 in Waunakee, a politically mixed town north of Madison, many Democrats suggested without prompting that their vote was as much if not more of a repudiation of Trump’s first months in office. Others disliked the richest man in the world playing such a prominent role. Musk was not only the race’s biggest donor, but he campaigned in Green Bay on Sunday.

Florida

Trump had better luck in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine won his special election in the 6th District to replace Mike Waltz, who stepped down to serve as Trump’s national security adviser.

But Fine beat his Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, by 14 percentage points less than five months after Waltz won the district by 33.

“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries beforehand, invoking a liberal favorite whom Trump often denigrates. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points.

“Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course not.”

Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to win the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz but also underperformed Gaetz’s last margin of victory.

Patronis carried the 1st Congressional District by a 14 percentage point margin, according to preliminary results. In many districts, that would be seen as a landslide. But that’s less than half of Trump’s November margin of victory. And in a stunning development, Democrats were able to turn Escambia County blue, flipping the county that’s home to Pensacola in the ruby red Florida Panhandle.