Let’s stay calm and carry on.

The consulting engineers for the RTC have developed a construction cost estimate for the Zero-Emissions Passenger Rail and Trail (ZEPRT) project, assuming it is to be operational by 2045.

Yes, $4.28 billion is a lot of money. But that’s not a realistic cost estimate. It’s an extreme worst-case scenario estimate, reflecting the highest cost imaginable at this early conceptual stage.

The RTC’s use of the term “rough, preliminary, order-of-magnitude estimate” is standard in public transportation project planning. It’s not meant to provide a realistic expectation of the actual project costs.

A “contingency values set” is applied as a factor in the preliminary estimate. The contingency value is $1,282.7 billion of a total of $4,283.0 billion. That’s 30%. The actual cost to be expected could be $3 billion, or even less.

Yes, the ZEPRT concept for public passenger rail transit, along with an integrated bike and pedestrian pathway, will require a significant investment in construction, operation and maintenance. We already knew that.

Yes, a countywide sales tax of an unspecified amount will be needed. However, that won’t happen anytime soon, and the rail transit project will not move forward until the tax has been approved by voters.

No, the project will never draw on the county budget.

No, the project won’t compete with any other local uses of public funds.

No, we don’t know what new public transportation district will be needed to realize the concept, how it will be organized, or how it will be financed. But we have a reasonable expectation.

Operating expenses will be financed through a combination of tax revenues, as a special transit district, such as Metro, is expected to manage the rail transit system. For comparison, Metro’s operating expenses for 2023 totaled $53.7 million. Countywide sales taxes represented 44% of METRO’s total revenue; state funds covered the remainder.

The highest RTC estimate of ZEPRT operating costs 20 years from now is $41 million, which is significantly less than the current cost of Metro. That RTC operating cost estimate includes a 17% contingency factor, meaning the least estimate is $34 million annually.

What will those expenses cost us in sales tax per taxpayer? Obviously, it depends on how much one buys, which we can’t model. But consider this: a 44% share of $41 million equals $18.04 million in tax revenue needed. Sales taxes are paid not just by residents but also by visitors. There are about 276,000 residents; let’s project 300,000 by 2045. Let’s also assume 300,000 annual visitors, although the actual number is likely higher. That’s $68.33 per capita per year, or $5.69 per month. Of course, these are 2025 dollars, projected 20 years from now. Still, will it be worth the equivalent of today’s $5.69 a month per resident to operate the new transit system?

Estimate the construction cost similarly. The high RTC estimate for ZEPRT construction costs, for completion before 2045, is $4.28 billion. This figure includes a 30% contingency factor, indicating that the low estimate is around $3 billion. For this calculation, let’s assume the actual cost will be $3.5 billion. The local share is expected to be about 20%, which will be funded by an added local sales tax. So 20% of $3.5 billion equals $700 million. When divided among the 600,000 residents and visitors who pay sales taxes, the total tax needed comes to $1,166.67 per capita. If spread throughout a 20-year plan, that’s $58.33 annually, or $4.86 per month.

For a resident taxpayer, then, will the capital investment be worth the equivalent of $4.86 a month, plus $5.69 a month for operations and maintenance, to achieve a state-of-the-art zero-emissions passenger rail transit system and a 22-mile pedestrian and cycling path that countless people will use for a century or more?

It’s worth the cost. We should proceed with planning and value engineering. Perhaps by 2035, we can vote on an appropriate sales tax measure.

Jim Weller is a Capitola resident and frequent contributor on rail and trail issues.