


DETROIT >> The question is going to be asked a lot in these next few weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline: Do the Tigers need more pitching?
That’s the wrong question.
Of course they need more pitching. Every team in baseball needs pitching. It’s universal. What the Tigers need to assess is how badly they need it, how vital it is to their pursuit of the American League pennant and their first World Series appearance since 2012, and how much are they willing to pay for it.
And the assessment will be done on two planes — reliever and starter.
On the reliever front, the need is real and you hope they are pounding on the Pirates’ door for right-hander David Bednar. He’s having a resurgent season at age 30, presently on a 16-outing run where he hasn’t allowed an earned run covering 15.1 innings with 21 strikeouts and four walks.
With his 97-mph four-seamer, curveball and splitter, his 35% strikeout rate and 30% whiff rate would be a massive addition to Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle in the back end of the Tigers’ bullpen.
It would cost the Tigers some, probably significant, prospect capital, for sure. And Bednar, in the final year of his contract, would be a one-year rental. How much of your future do you leverage to go for it this year? That’s the calculus.
And that math gets a little tougher when it’s applied to the cost of adding a starting pitcher, because there are some different variables involved.
One is the Tarik Skubal window. The Tigers’ ace and reigning Cy Young winner can be and most likely will be a free agent after next season. So, you have to factor in the urgency of maximizing the opportunity this season, plus taking a proactive measure to fill a possible void in the rotation after 2026.
Meaning, if you are going to liquidate your farm system for a premier starting pitcher, best to seek one with multiple years of team control.
That’s why you’ve seen the Tigers linked in media speculation to another Pirates pitcher, Mitch Keller, who is 29 and under contract through 2028, with a little over $71 million remaining on a five-year, $77 million deal.
Before they get to that point, though, they need to determine the exact degree of need for a starting pitcher this year.
With Skubal, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson, the Tigers have a formidable foursome to take into any five- or seven-game series. Skubal is mounting a fierce campaign for a second Cy Young and Mize is putting together a career year worthy of Comeback Player of the Year consideration.
Sturdy pillars, both.
We don’t know what projections president Scott Harris and his team of data analysts have on Flaherty and Olson. Flaherty has had some rocky moments in the first half, but his last three starts have been encouraging.
Mostly because his fastball has been consistently crisp and smartly commanded and he’s regained the trust in his slider, a staple of his arsenal over his career that had eluded him for a stretch.
We don’t know how much this weighs on Harris’ actuarial tables, but Flaherty’s mixed results with the Dodgers in the postseason last year mirror his bumpy ride this year. He had both a stellar start and a rocky start against the Mets in the NLDS and a solid start and a rocky start against the Yankees in the World Series.
The only worry about Olson is health. He’s back from missing seven weeks with inflammation in his right ring finger. He’s labored and battled his command in his two starts back, which is understandable as he kicks off the rust. But he’s made clutch pitches under duress and kept the damage to a minimum in both starts.
When he locks in, which he will, he could be the Tigers’ Game 3 starter in a playoff series.
Most teams would be very content to roll into the postseason with this rotation. And maybe Harris is, too.
Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long and eventually Jose Urquidy will also be in the starter mix down the stretch. (It’s difficult, at this point, to envision Alex Cobb being healthy enough to pitch this season.)
But don’t sleep on Urquidy. He’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and is close to beginning his rehab assignment. He was an important part of the Astros’ playoff runs, making vital starts in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2023.
He could be one of the arguments against spending big on a rental starter.
Because of the overall health of this organization, financially and in depth of talent throughout the minor league system, Harris can attack this trade deadline from a position of strength.
He doesn’t need to throw a Hail Mary or take any unreasonable risk. He can aggressively pursue whatever primary need he, his staff and manager AJ Hinch identify. And that’s a great spot to operate from, especially when you’ve already got the winningest team in baseball as it’s presently constructed.
But standing pat comes with its own risks. They need to bolster the pitching and it will come with a cost. Harris resists identifying any player or prospect as untouchable. But you’d think it would take a lot to pry top prospects Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Josue Briceno or Thayron Liranzo away.
But that still leaves a ton of highly-regarded talent for teams to pick from.
Most likely, Harris will prioritize adding pitching over adding position players (which is not to say they won’t also seek to add another right-handed bat). Adding a proven starter with years of control like Keller would be expensive but would kill two birds — providing a boost right now and some cushion down the road should they lose Skubal.
They could also go after rentals like Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly, which might not cost them as many prospects.
But given the nature of playoff strategy and the value of a dominant bullpen, priority one very well could be a swing-and-miss reliever. Bednar and St. Louis right hander Ryan Helsley (33.6% chase rate, 30% whiff rate) would be strong additions and both on expiring contracts.