Chris MacFarland had an idea for why the NHL’s free agent frenzy felt more sluggish than spectacular.

The salary cap is going up next season — way up. The increase, from $88 million to $95.5 million, is the largest (by dollars, not percentage) in one year since the cap was installed in 2005. And for the first time in the cap era, the NHL provided estimated projections for three seasons: The ceiling is expected to shoot up to $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28.

Everyone has more money to spend, so cue the player movement mayhem, right?

Not so fast.

“I think we’re entering into a different time period than maybe the last years when the cap was flat,” the Colorado Avalanche general manager said. “We’re in this scenario where there is going to be more money in the system. Is that going to mean less players hit free agency?

“These dramatic increases are certainly helpful, especially for teams that are entering that cycle and trying to win.”

That was certainly the case this offseason. Six pending UFAs signed contracts worth $5 million per season or more in June with their current teams (though Mitch Marner was moved in a sign-and-trade). Only six UFAs went to the market and signed deals worth that much per season in the first three days of July, and one (Brock Boeser) stayed put. Boeser’s team, the Vancouver Canucks, also got a start on diluting next year’s UFA pool by signing Thatcher Demko and Conor Garland to big-money extensions.

So, where does that leave the top of the NHL? Looking pretty similar to how it did at the end of this past season.

There could be more movement to come, but a lot of it will be minor alterations around the edges. The top two contenders are:

1. Dallas Stars

Surprise, it’s not the Florida Panthers … like possibly every other list this offseason. The Panthers (and Edmonton Oilers) have played so many games the past few years. No team has reached the Stanley Cup a fourth year in a row since 1983. It’s crazy hard to do, and the schedule is going to be compressed by the Olympic break.

The Stars’ most important loss could be coach Peter DeBoer, but his former team has won the Stanley Cup shortly after his departure before. A full year of Mikko Rantanen, plus another year for Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, and this can be the best team in the league.

2. Florida Panthers

They got the band back together and are still loaded, and the rest of the East is … trying to catch up. We’re still predicting the Panthers will run out of gas at some point, but it might not be until the end.