Playoffs? Broncos Country is talking about the playoffs?
It might be crazy to believe, but here we are. The Broncos are 5-3, second in the AFC West and given how teams like the Bengals, Jets and Dolphins have played below expectations thus far, Sean Payton’s crew has a shot at doing something that didn’t seem possible in the summer.
There’s a sense of hope in Denver, but the organization still has a ways to go before truly escaping the dark abyss it’s been in since 2016. If the Broncos want to end their eight-year playoff drought, here are four things they need to do.
Maintain defensive success
Payton said the identity of a championship team is a consistent rushing attack and defense. The Broncos have been successful in the latter, which is one of the biggest stories across the league due to last year’s struggles and losing Justin Simmons, one of the top safeties in the league.
The Broncos have held opponents to under 20 points in six of their eight games. Led by defensive end Zach Allen, and edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, Denver has been one of the best pass rush teams. Bonitto is on pace to record double-digit sacks while Cooper has a strong chance of doing the same. New additions like Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers have helped improve the team’s run defense. The Broncos have given up four rushing yards per carry — tied for fourth-best in the league.
In the secondary, cornerback Pat Surtain II is playing at an All-Pro level once again. Meanwhile, second-year cornerback Riley Moss has been solid in the starting role. Part of Denver’s pass rush success has been its ability to play man coverage, providing enough time for the players up front to get after the quarterback.
The next three weeks against Baltimore, Kansas City and Atlanta should serve as a measuring stick of how good Denver’s defense truly is. If they somehow play meaningful football in January it’s because the defense has maintained its high level of play.
Nix must continue to limit turnovers
From a numbers standpoint, Broncos’ Bo Nix was arguably the best rookie quarterback in the month of October. Nix threw for 870 passing yards, seven touchdowns and an interception while completing 66.7% of his pass attempts.
The number that sticks about the most about Nix’s performance this month is the interception total. It’s a sign that Nix is making progress after throwing four interceptions in September. Each of Nix’s picks this season was a product of sloppy mechanics and trying to do too much. Nix has much to improve on but the decrease in turnovers indicates that he is beginning to find his rhythm.
Interestingly enough, the Broncos are 5-0 when Nix doesn’t throw an interception. They are 0-3 when he does.
Denver understands there’s no more room for error. Payton said after Wednesday’s practice that one of the keys to beating the Ravens on Sunday is controlling the time of possession. In order to do that, Nix will have to continue to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way.
“Sometimes you are going to put the ball in play and (the opponent) makes a good play,” Nix said. “We have to eliminate them and continue to win the turnover margin. When we do that, we’re successful.”
Rushing attack needs more of angry Javonte
Good things seem to happen when running back Javonte Williams moves down the field like a runaway freight train.
Similar to Denver’s success when Nix doesn’t throw a pick, the team is 8-0 when Williams rushes for at least 60 yards, dating back to the 2023 campaign. The only problem is there have been more occasions of Williams underperforming this season. He has rushed for under 50 yards in five games this fall, most recently in Week 8’s win over the Panthers when he rushed for 44 yards on 17 carries and averaged 2.6 yards per attempt.
During the first three games of the season, Williams couldn’t get anything going. He totaled 52 yards and was held under 20 yards twice. The last five weeks, however, have been encouraging. Williams has recorded 293 yards during that stretch.
It’s worth noting that five of the six top rushing offenses — Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay and Detroit — are in the playoff picture. Those teams also have a combined record of 28-11. Denver is in the middle of the pack, ranking 14th in rushing yards per game (121.4). If the Broncos truly view themselves as playoff contenders, they will need more consistency from Williams and the rest of their running backs.
More big plays in the passing game
Nix, who threw for a season-best 284 passing yards last week, hasn’t had any problems debunking the pre draft narrative regarding his arm strength. The former Oregon signal caller is averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt, according to Next Gen Stats.
Yes, the Broncos are not going to play the Panthers every week. But the victory provided the opportunity to establish some kind of continuity in the downfield passing game — something that wasn’t noticeable in recent weeks.
The thing is, there are going to be games where Denver will have to play one dimensional, forcing Nix to use his arm to get the offense going. The Broncos matchup against the Ravens might be one of those matchups. Baltimore is among the best at stopping the run, but notorious at allowing explosive plays.
This season, the Ravens have given up six touchdown passes on throws for 20-plus yards.
It’s understandable that the Broncos want their offensive identity to be about the run game. However, if they can incorporate more explosive plays to the offense, it will help the team in trending upwards in the standings.
“Each week we have to be able to stretch the field that way,” Payton said. “We’re close on it.”