In a Metro Detroit rematch that features the same characters in a familiar storyline, Republican U.S. Rep. John James is facing another challenge from Democrat and former Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga, who is plotting an upset.

Heading into their showdown two years ago, it looked like the well-funded James might cruise to victory in Michigan’s newly drawn 10th District, which covers parts of Macomb and Oakland counties. He enjoyed a 15-to-1 cash advantage heading into October with a constituency that twice voted for Donald Trump, albeit by only 1 percentage point in 2020.

National Democratic groups wrote off the race two years ago, but the results got their attention: James of Shelby Township edged out Marlinga of Sterling Heights by 1,600 votes or 0.5 percentage points to win Michigan’s 10th District. Only two U.S. House races — central California’s 13th District and western Colorado’s 3rd District — had tighter margins in 2022.

Erin Covey, a House analyst for the Cook Political Report, said the small margin was “a big surprise to a lot of Democrats, both nationally and in Michigan.”

Caught off guard last time, national Democrats are closely monitoring the race this year amid a different political environment at the state and national levels. The battle lines and top issues in the district — manufacturing jobs, abortion, border security and the cost of living — are mostly unchanged. But outside spending and influence from the presidential election are likely to factor heavily into the outcome.

Top elections handicappers such as the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia Center for Politics have rated the contest as “lean Republican,” though Marlinga expressed optimism heading into November.

“I’ve been in a number of campaigns in my life, and there’s a sixth sense that you often have at the beginning of the campaign, whether or not it’s going to be successful,” Marlinga, 77, said in an interview. He has won seven elections in Macomb County for prosecutor or judge since 1983.

“My gut feeling is that we’re going to win,” he added.

James, 43, ran statewide for U.S. Senate twice before his first House bid in 2022 and expects a “very close” contest on Nov. 5.

“Democrats will call me their crown jewel to take out,” James told The News.

2022 vs. 2024

The first matchup between James and Marlinga was marked by a lopsided spending advantage for James and lopsided support for top-of-the-ticket Democratic candidates and causes. Those factors this year have been upended.

The politics of the area — not just the map — have shifted since 2016, said Dave Dulio, an Oakland University political scientist. The district would have voted for Democratic former President Barack Obama by more than 10 percentage points in 2008 and more than 6 points in 2012. But it would have gone for Trump in each of the past two presidential elections — by about 5 points in 2016 and 1 point in 2020.

“We used to talk about Macomb County in terms of Reagan Democrats. You know, those folks who voted for Reagan but remained supporters of the Democratic Party,” Dulio said. “But they’re Reagan Democrats no more. They’re Trump Republicans at this point.”

Jamie Roe, a Macomb County Republican political strategist, attributed the close U.S. House margin in 2022 largely to Democrats being buoyed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s successful re-election bid and support for Ballot Proposal 3, a statewide measure enshrining abortion rights in the Michigan Constitution.

Instead of those drags on James this year, Roe said the first-term congressman will get a significant boost from Trump being on the ballot.

“Donald Trump at the top of the ticket certainly helps, absolutely helps,” Roe said.

But Democrats contended the differences this year will play in their favor. The U.S. House Democrats’ campaign arm announced in August that it was adding Marlinga to its program for top recruits. He also got an infusion of $1.74 million in ad spending by House Majority PAC for the last two weeks of September - more than Marlinga raised during his entire 2022 campaign.

Marlinga said he would’ve won in 2022 with outside support and that he is pleased to finally receive some. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has $1.7 million in reserved airtime that could be spent before Election Day, and the House Majority PAC has another $4.6 million reserved in the Detroit market, according to ad-tracking data.

Marlinga also said his campaign fundraising has “shot through the roof” since his primary victory in August, with $1.18 million in airtime reserved. Fundraising reports for the third quarter are due Oct. 15.

He had about only $100,000 on hand in mid-July after raising about $140,000 in the second quarter, while James had $4 million in cash reserves as of July 17.

James, a prolific fundraiser who is also receiving outside support, already spent $2 million on ads and has another $2.6 million in future reservations. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to the House GOP leadership, also has $1.6 million reserved to boost James if needed this fall.

“I think money helps,” said Mike Radtke, a Democratic political strategist in Macomb County and a member of the Sterling Heights City Council.

Radtke suggested that Marlinga now has enough cash to amplify his message. “You need money to get your message out, but at a certain point, it stops mattering,” he added. Asked if he felt confident about the election given the new wave of money for his opponent, James replied: “Ask me that on Nov. 6.”

‘Black job’ on the line

The candidates, separated in age by 34 years, both have backgrounds in public service.

James is a U.S. Army veteran recruited by national Republicans who has pitched himself as a deregulatory conservative who said government requirements - most notably on tailpipe emissions for vehicles - stifle innovation. He has emphasized lowering inflation - achieved by cutting regulations and federal spending - securing the Southern border and keeping parents apprised of what’s happening in their children’s schools.

“I’m trying to keep auto jobs from going to other states and other countries,” James said, adding: “I’m a combat veteran, and I understand what it takes to secure borders and keep our sons out of war.”

James grew up in Detroit and Southfield. He graduated from West Point and later served in Iraq, flying Apache helicopters in combat, before returning to Michigan and joining his family’s transportation logistics business, James Group International, in 2012.

He often cites his experience running an auto supply chain firm as crucial to representing one of the nation’s top manufacturing and automotive districts. He is the former president of James Group International.

In his first term, James said he is most proud of advocating for budget earmarks for projects in his district. He also boasted about having one of the most moderate ideology scores of any U.S. House member, per GovTrack. Through July, James had voted against his party 12.5% of the time, according to ProPublica. That ranked 51st highest out of 435 members. James is the state’s only Black member of Congress. In 2022, he became the first Black Republican to ever represent Michigan in Congress and the first Black candidate from Michigan to represent a majority-White suburban district.

“Carl Marlinga’s trying to take my Black job,” he said, referencing a comment from Trump during this year’s first presidential debate.

Marlinga’s ‘trusted’ brand

Marlinga, a retired judge who grew up in Warren, has emphasized his support for labor unions like the United Auto Workers, sensible emissions regulations paired with clean energy spending to create jobs and protection of abortion rights at the federal level.

“I’m just a trusted person in the county,” he said. “Voters know that I’ve been a force for good in the county for a lot of years.”

Marlinga was referencing his time as Macomb County prosecutor from 1985-2004 and later as a judge in the county Circuit and Probate courts starting in 2013. Earlier in his career, Marlinga was an assistant U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Michigan and as a special trial attorney with the U.S. Justice Department’s Organized Crime Strike Force.

Marlinga said he is running because he is afraid of the threat that Trump poses to American democracy.

“Democracy is at a crossroads. And I have to do everything I can as a citizen to make sure that our constitutional form of government stays intact,” Marlinga said. “God forbid (Trump) should win the election. I think that we need a (Democratic) majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate to keep the very worst from happening.”

Before 2022, Marlinga ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House in 2002 and the U.S. Senate in 1994.

On the issues

The candidates’ positions mostly have not changed since their last matchup, though the circumstances around some key issues have.

James is an outspoken opponent of so-called “EV mandates,” making it a hallmark of his campaign. The phrase refers to the Biden administration’s extensive web of policies aimed at promoting electric vehicle production and adoption.

James has said those policies would jeopardize jobs in his manufacturing-heavy district, national security and the overall health of the U.S. auto industry.

The Republican has particularly decried draft tailpipe emission standards from the Environmental Protection Agency that — before being scaled back in their final version — might have pushed EV sales in the U.S. to 67% of new car sales by 2032. James has led an effort to cancel the regulation that is unlikely to succeed given Democrats’ current control of the U.S. Senate and White House.

“I have nothing against EVs. I would love to build every EV in Michigan, but my problem is with top-down, comply-or-die regulations dictated by the federal government,” James said. That comment runs counter to Trump’s Sept. 17 suggestion in Flint that the U.S. should abandon EV production.

James pledged to support existing Biden administration investments meant to improve Michigan’s EV supply chain, but he also bashed potential fines on automakers for failing to meet environmental standards. James said those fines, which automakers have claimed could total billions of dollars, would be better spent by the companies on improving their businesses.

Marlinga has referred to the Biden regulations as “tough love” for the industry. “We have to put the pressure on the auto companies because, without the pressure of the federal government, they weren’t doing it themselves,” he said.

He added: “The environmental standards have seemed to point only to electric vehicles as a way to satisfy them. That was a mistake. We have to make progress. We have to make it as fast as possible. But we also have to make it in a way that allows the market to decide and allows everybody to keep their jobs.”

Abortion

Marlinga said a “defining” difference between the candidates is abortion. Marlinga is staunchly for abortion rights and criticized James for being “part of a team in Congress that would be aiming at a nationwide abortion ban.”

He added: “People who believe in personal freedom and reproductive freedom should be voting for me, and people who want big government controlling our personal lives, including in vitro fertilization choices, then they should vote for John James.”

James said on WDIV’s Flashpoint in July 2023 that he would not support a national policy on abortion, noting the U.S. Supreme Court had returned the issue to the states to regulate.

“The people of Michigan have spoken, and … I said from the very, very beginning that we need to have compassion for women, and we need to listen to women, and women have made their voice heard loud and clear,” said James, referencing Proposal 3.

“We need to look out for exceptions like rape, incest, life for the mother. And we need to respect the fact that the decision is back to the states,” he added. He previously opposed exceptions for abortion in cases of rape or incest.

The border, inflation

James blamed Democrats and their support of “open borders” for the migrant crisis, and Democrats have, in turn, blamed Trump for killing a bipartisan immigration bill earlier this year as a way to keep the issue alive during the presidential campaign.

To ease the large influx of migrants across the border, Marlinga has floated the idea of the government bringing on retired judges as “emergency” immigration law judges to tackle the growing backlog of cases and expedite deportations.

On the inflation front, James, a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, supports an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy that uses fossil fuels and renewables to make energy as plentiful as possible and bring down prices. Marlinga said oil “will always have its place,” but within 30 to 40 years, he would like to see it dethroned thanks to wind, solar and other renewable energy sources.

“Salt used to be one of the most precious commodities on the planet because, with it, armies could preserve meat. So where the salt was located was an important geopolitical consideration,” Marlinga said. “It’s still a useful product. It still has its applications, and we still need it, but it no longer runs the world. It’s the same thing with oil.”

James has also voiced his support for lower taxes, permitting reform and boosting Michigan’s defense contracts. Marlinga supports banning semi-automatic weapons, enacting safe gun storage laws and expansions of paid family leave and universal preschool education.

Candidate attacks

In one ad, James has hammered Marlinga for calling fossil fuel-powered vehicles “a dying industry” in an August 2022 interview with The Detroit News. The move is part of an apparent strategy by James to put the Democrat on defense in an area that depends heavily on the auto industry to power the local economy.

Marlinga did use the language, though he was referring to continued reliance on gas-powered cars to drive business for automakers amid a global, industry-wide transition to EVs.

“It’s a silly comment out of context,” Marlinga said. “I want to see the auto companies make a lot of money, and I want to see UAW employees benefit from the rising tide of lifting all boats in the harbor to make the automobile industry the big, booming industry with world domination out of Michigan like it was for decades and decades.”

James said Marlinga “supports an extreme agenda that is out of step with the district,” mirroring language from a new ad that suggests he and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris support children who question their gender identity being able to receive medication without parents’ knowledge or consent.

The first-term congressman has also insulted Harris, often mispronouncing her first name and saying during an appearance on Fox Business that she “always sounds like she’s halfway through her second bottle of wine whenever she gets into an unscripted interview.”

Asked about the remark, James suggested it was made in jest: “I think that a little humor is probably what this country needs.”

The Republican added: “You would have to be drunk to support some of the extreme policies that she has supported.”

Marlinga said people are “weary of all of that seventh-grade banter.”

“I really resent the toxic nature of politics,” he said. “I think ultimately it hurts candidates who engage in that childish behavior.”

Marlinga’s campaign criticized James for pulling out of the candidates’ only scheduled debate ahead of the election, suggesting he’s “running scared” after late financial disclosures led to an ethics complaint from a left-leaning watchdog group.

James responded by saying he already debated Marlinga in 2022 and that he’s “focusing on talking to the voters directly.”

The congressman also has denied any intentional wrongdoing on his stock trades, vowed to avoid such errors in the future and explained that he was unaware of the transactions in question because they took place under a financial trust “that functions as a blind trust.”

“I think integrity is about being forthcoming,” James said. “And I’m as committed to increase transparency on stock trading as I’ve ever been.”