Republicans are on the cusp of regaining the House majority for the 119th Congress and securing total control of Washington, days after the party won the presidency and control of the Senate.

House Republicans appear to have flipped a fourth seat held by Democrats in Colorado where freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) conceded her race to Republican Gabe Evans Sunday evening. The Associated Press has not yet called the race as of Monday evening.

The current balance of power in the House is 214 Republicans and 204 Democrats, with 18 races remaining uncalled by the AP. Republicans need to win four of them to secure a majority; Democrats need to win 14.

A Republican trifecta in Washington would ensure that President-elect Donald Trump’s staunchly conservative agenda largely goes into effect. A GOP Congress would be committed to passing policies to secure the southern border and quickly reauthorizing Trump’s 2017 tax law, major portions of which expire at the end of 2025.

Though Republicans are inching closer to keeping their majority for a second term, it is probably with a narrower margin. That could test how certain policies are drafted, especially as House Republicans’ ideologically fractious conference often halted them from passing conservative bills over the past two years.

But GOP lawmakers expect Trump to play an outsize role in influencing, at times possibly pressuring, them to vote in favor of his agenda. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who is expected to be reelected speaker in leadership elections this week, will have an ally in Trump to ensure House Republicans fall in line on policies certain wings of the conference could find controversial.

Trump is also expected to have a more favorable Senate than during his first term. Several have pledged allegiance to his MAGA movement, and three Republican senators are vying for his endorsement by pledging to cooperate with his wishes ahead of their leadership elections this week to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) as the top GOP leader next year.

Gaming out the remaining races

House Democratic campaign strategists were hoping Caraveo could hold on to her seat to give the party a cushion as several races in California and one in Arizona remain to be called. These strategists, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to outline internal strategy, believe it’s likely that Republicans will flip Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola’s seat in Alaska, where Trump handily won the state.

It’s still possible that Democrats flip the House majority to become a major check on Republican power. But their pathway is incredibly narrow and barely leaves room for error.

If Peltola loses, Democrats believe that they can only afford to lose one more district and then flip seven of the remaining eight competitive districts between California and Arizona to clinch the majority.

Democrats have successfully flipped three seats from Republicans in New York and appear poised to regain one in Oregon — all districts in liberal states that helped Republicans gain the House majority during the 2022 midterms.

Republicans surprisingly held on to seats in Iowa and Nebraska that appeared in play weeks before Election Day and will keep a district in Washington where GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse appears to be fending off a Republican challenge from Jerrod Sessler. The AP has yet to call the race.

Meanwhile, Trump’s voter turnout prowess helped Republicans unseat two Democrats in Pennsylvania and flip an open seat in Michigan that Democrats held since 2018.

It also helped quickly solidify the Senate majority. On election night, Republicans secured enough seats to regain the Senate majority. Early Saturday, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected to win Nevada’s Senate race, according to the Associated Press, marking a victory for Democrats in one of the last Senate seats to be called.

Arizona’s Senate race remains the last one in the upper chamber without a projected winner. There, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) leads Republican Kari Lake. If Gallego wins, Republicans will have a 53-seat majority.

What’s left to be called

It is unclear when the final call will come to determine the balance of Congress. Several Republican and Democratic campaign strategists believe the House majority could be officially projected later this week, as millions of ballots still need to be counted in Western states.

It could take weeks to determine the final outcome of crucial races in states where the electoral outcomes in several House districts have yet to solidify and counting has been slow. As of Sunday afternoon, there were nearly 5 million uncounted ballots in California, including more than 950,000 in Los Angeles County alone. County officials have 30 days to count their ballots and report them to the secretary of state, which then certifies the results.

We’re watching several races closely: those of Republican Reps. Michelle Steel, Ken Calvert, Mike Garcia, David G. Valadao and John Duarte in California; the race for the open seat that Rep. Katie Porter (D) gave up in California; the contest involving Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona; and Peltola as Alaska’s at-large representative.