Rents fell for the second consecutive month in October, with apartment pricing down in 89% of big cities statewide.

My trusty spreadsheet reviewed ApartmentList’s monthly rent estimates in October for 44 large California cities. To estimate what tenants are paying, this rent tracker looks at its own online listings plus landlord pricing data from government sources.

In an era of surging rents, a 1.3% dip from September to a monthly median payment of $2,222 may seem modest, but it’s the largest one-month decline in ApartmentList data going back to 2017.

October rent cuts in 39 of 44 big cities are a broadening of discounting. Rent drops were found in just nine cities a year ago.

Let’s not forget rents do remain high.

California’s big-city apartment rents are up 3.5% in a year after gaining 19% in the previous 12 months. The 2022 pace seems more “normal” as rent increased at a 3.2% average annual pace in 2018-19. (By the way, in 2021’s housing craze, rents rose 2.9% in August alone!)

The bottom line

Apartment rents statewide also fell in September, a 0.4% one-month median decline, with dips seen in 33 of the 44 cities.

It’s true that autumn isn’t a big season for renters. Yet this two-month dip aligns with industry buzz suggesting that pandemic changes to living arrangements seem to have halted, at least temporarily.

Frenetic apartment hunting is over. Working from home and remote schooling are down, cutting needs for larger living quarters and lowering the desirability of rentals far from job centers. Plus surging rents combined with 2022’s economic uncertainty made living with family or roommates more popular.

To be fair, we should wait until early 2023 to determine if recent rent cuts are simply seasonal swings or the start of a serious downturn.

The caveat

Rent stats vary not only geographically but also by who is counting what, where and when.

Many studies track pricing by management companies for big apartment complexes. Compare that with the consumer price index’s rent index, which is drawn from a survey of consumers living in a wide range of rental arrangements.

Remember, the CPI also covers small landlords who own a chunk of the rental market and often price far differently than giant property owners.

Look at the CPI’s rent inflation measures from across the state for September and you’ll see rising rates of rent hikes.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties: Up 7.9% in a year versus a 4.3% gain 12 months earlier.

San Diego: Up 7.6% in a year versus 3.2% 12 months earlier.

Los Angeles and Orange counties: Up 5.3% in a year versus 1.1% 12 months earlier.

Bay Area: Up 2.3% in a year versus 0.1% 12 months earlier.

Now let’s take a peek at renting’s extremes within those 44 cities using ApartmentList’s October data.

Start with the size of the monthly check …

Highest rents: Irvine was No. 1 at $3,200 a month, then came Carlsbad at $3,040, Temecula at $2,784, Santa Clara at $2,723 and Simi Valley at $2,650.

Lowest rents: Fresno at $1,329, Sacramento at $1,656, Oakland at $1,666, Long Beach at $1,711 and Concord at $1,860.

Next, look at one-month rent changes …

Best for tenants: Concord was tops, off 3.3% from September to $1,860; then San Mateo, off 3.1% to $2,632; Sunnyvale, off 2.6% to $2,577; Temecula, off 2.5% to $2,784; and Pomona, off 2.4% to $1,959.

Worst: Irvine was No. 1 with a 0.6% increase from September to $3,200. Next was Carlsbad, up 0.5% to $3,040; then Orange, up 0.4% to $2,367; Vista, up 0.3% to $2,357; and West Covina, up 0.1% to $2,273.

And the 12-month rent change?

Best for tenants: Ventura was tops, off 4% since October 2021 to $2,059. No. 2 was Roseville, off 4% to $2,100; then Oakland, off 3% to $1,666; Ontario, flat at $2,181; and Costa Mesa, flat at $2,542.

Worst: Chula Vista’s 14% jump since October 2021 to $2,447 was the highest. Then Oceanside, up 14% to $2,639; Santa Clara, up 12% to $2,723; Vista, up 11% to $2,357; and Burbank, up 10% to $2,129.

Pricing for tenants from pre-pandemic October 2019 …

Best for tenants: Oakland was No. 1, down 14% in three years to $1,666. Next was San Francisco, off 12% to $2,268; San Mateo, off 2% to $2,632; Sunnyvale, up 2% to $2,577; and San Jose, up 5% to $2,477.

Worst: Vista’s 40% hike since October 2019 to $2,357 was the highest. Then came 39% increases in Oceanside to $2,639; Moreno Valley to $2,171; Murrieta to $2,441; and Chula Vista to $2,447.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.