Nail-biter ballot measures IDed in poll

CALIFORNIA

Measures on minimum wage, rent control lag in days before Nov. 5 election

A broken sewage line near the playground in the back patio is being repaired at East Oakland Pride Elementary School in Oakland, on Friday, Feb. 25, 2022. RAY CHAVEZ — BAY AREA NEWS GROUP

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By Ethan Baron

Bay Area News Group

Three statewide California measures on the Nov. 5 ballot — school bonds, bond measure voter approval levels and rent control advocacy funding — could go either way with less than two weeks before the election, according to a new poll, while two prominent propositions face uphill battles, and tough-on-crime Proposition 36 continues to receive a strong majority of support.

When surveys find measures are roughly even in support, the result can depend on voter turnout, along with what closing arguments voters may learn from the yes and no campaigns or from trusted friends, family members and political figures, said Mark Baldassare, statewide poll director at the Public Policy Institute of California.

“Unlike partisan candidate races, it’s relatively easy for people to change their minds, particularly to vote against something because voting against something is voting for the status quo,” Baldassare said.

Among teetering measures was Proposition 5, which would amend the state constitution and make it easier to approve local infrastructure and housing bonds for low- and middle-income Californians by requiring a 55% vote by a local electorate, instead of the current two-thirds. The PPIC’s survey showed 48% approval and 50% opposition. Supported by the California Democratic Party, the AFL-CIO and California Labor Federation, Proposition 5 is opposed by the California Chamber of Commerce, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the California Republican Party.

Proposition 2, to authorize $10 billion in bonds for repairs, upgrades and construction at public K—12 schools, community colleges and technical-education career programs, remained uncertain, too, as the Nov. 5 election nears. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, while 46% said they would vote no. The measure has the support of the California Democratic and Republican parties, the California Chamber of Commerce and the California Federation of Teachers, while it is opposed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.And Proposition 34, an electoral oddity backed by landlords seeking to choke off funding for rent-control crusader the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, had 47% of likely voters in support, while 49% said they would vote no, according to the Public Policy Institute of California, which surveyed 1,137 likely voters Oct. 7-15. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, the measure’s fate hangs in the balance. Support appears to have dropped slightly since September when 53% of likely voters said they would vote yes on Proposition 34.

Two high-profile measures, Proposition 32 to raise the minimum wage to $18 from $16, and Proposition 33 to expand local governments’ ability to impose rent control had supporter numbers well below 50%. Forty-four percent of survey respondents said they would vote to boost the minimum wage, and 42% percent said they would vote for broadened rent control.

“For measures that are below 50%, it’s an uphill battle,” Baldassare said, as persuading voters to reconsider their positions and support a measure instead of opposing it is often challenging.

Both the minimum-wage and rent-control measures appeared to have experienced slides in support since September when 50% of likely voters said they would vote to increase the minimum wage and 51% supported expanding rent control, according to PPIC’s surveys.

Proposition 36, to roll back criminal justice reforms and harshen penalties for some theft and drug crimes, appears to enjoy huge support among likely voters, with 73% saying they would vote yes, and 25% saying they would vote no.

Under the initiative, a person with two prior theft convictions could be charged with a felony regardless of the stolen property’s value. The plan would also impose jail or prison for repeat drug possession, which could be avoided if an accused person agreed to drug treatment.

A PPIC analysis of California Department of Justice figures shows that from 2019 and 2023, shoplifting increased by 28%, with 90% of the surge occurring in Alameda, San Mateo, Los Angeles and Sacramento counties. Last year, property crime jumped 28% in Alameda County and about 8% in Contra Costa County but dropped almost 11% in Santa Clara County and about 9% in San Mateo County, PPIC reported this month.

Opponents argue that Proposition 36 would lead to mass incarceration, while supporters claim official property crime data is unreliable because so many lower-level thefts go unreported.

Despite the apparent wide gulf favoring passage of Proposition 36, it is not a slam dunk, Baldassare said.

“It’s always possible that if there’s a concerted effort among the opponents to raise doubts and questions about something that people support,” Baldassare said, “the bottom can fall out of the support.”

The Million Voters Project campaign opposing Proposition 36 said 69% of the 250,000 voters it has reached out to — “low-income families, young people, people of color, and formerly incarcerated people who are frequently ignored by polls” — oppose the initiative.

“The difference in numbers from traditional polling data shouldn’t come as a surprise,” the group said in a news release.

Anne Marie Schubert, a former Sacramento County district attorney with Californians for Safer Communities supporting Proposition 36, said Thursday they’re taking nothing for granted and are still raising money, buying ads and canvassing would-be voters “to make sure that everybody has seen it, read it and understands the implications.”

“You always run,” Schubert said, “like you’re 10 points behind.”