By Markus Flynn

As a former educator and now executive director of Black Men Teach, I have spent my entire life in and around schools, so to me, September feels more like the start of a new year than January ever could.

What accompanies every new year is a time for reflection. As I look back on past school years, I vividly recall wandering the aisles of Target and Walmart, searching for the perfect No. 2 pencils, the ones with just the right eraser, and coordinating colorful folders to match my notebooks for each subject. I remember the exhilarating mix of excitement and anxiety: Would my new teachers be inspiring? Who would I sit next to in class? Would my friends share the same lunch period? And, in the depths of my middle school (and if I’m honest, high school) hopefulness, which girl might finally notice me?

I also reflect on my time on the other side of the classroom. I remember my first year of teaching, stepping into my classroom, just as nervous as I had been as a student. The awkwardness of my sixth-graders surprised me; they seemed so small, both in stature and in confidence. I can still recall the look on many of their faces when they realized that I, a young Black man, was their classroom teacher. A first for many, and an unfortunate reality in Minnesota is I was likely their last.

Yet, as I think about the experiences that shaped my journey from student to educator, I realize that there was one critical element missing from my teacher preparation and professional development, something more influential than virtually any other factor, yet often overlooked and under-discussed. That element is expectations.

I believe expectations are the single most important predictor of student success.

In 1968, Robert Rosenthal published a groundbreaking study that introduced the Pygmalion Effect in the classroom. In this study, Rosenthal administered an aptitude test to students at a California elementary school and informed teachers that a specific group of students was poised to “blossom” in the coming year. A year later, when Rosenthal retested the students, he found that those in the “blossom” group had gained an average of 27 IQ points!

What makes this study so important is the fact that there was nothing different about those students. The authors concluded that the teacher’s expectations of students had a significant impact on their achievement.

When I first encountered the results of this study, I was skeptical. I questioned whether the measurement tools or methodology were biased, flawed, or flat-out fake. To gain clarity, I sought more recent data to either support or dispute these findings. And what I found only reinforced the validity of Rosenthal’s original conclusions.

In the late ’90s, Professor John Hattie set out on a quest to answer one question: Which variables have the greatest impact on student achievement? That journey led to him creating the Visible Learning research base, which has now synthesized over 2,103 meta-analyses from more than 132,000 studies that involve over 300 million students worldwide in a project known as Meta X.

The team at Meta X has, through meta-analysis, assessed over 350 variables (e.g. peer tutoring, prior achievement, class size) that have an impact on student achievement. The output from each meta-analysis is a single variable called an “effect size” — which is essentially a score for each variable that shows how much of an influence it has on student achievement. An effect size of 0.4 is considered to mean it produces about one school year’s worth of growth. Anything above 0.4 indicates an even more substantial positive impact on student learning.

As you go through the list of the over 300 variables, many of the things you would imagine are influential show up. Well-timed feedback, teacher clarity, and access to STEM programs, all influence to accelerate achievement positively. But when you filter the data to see what has the highest ability to influence student outcomes there is a clear takeaway.

With an effect size of 1.29, teachers’ estimate of student achievement is the most powerful variable in the entire study, underscoring the earlier research from Dr. Rosenthal.

As powerful a tool as expectations can be, they can also be crippling when students are burdened with chronically low expectations year after year.

In a 2016 Yale study teachers were told to watch a video of children playing with manipulatives and given the simple assignment of clicking when they saw misbehavior. Just like in the Rosenthal study, there was an important caveat: There was no misbehavior. Researchers were using eye-tracking software to see where the teachers spent their time looking. The video featured four children, two girls, one Black and one white, and two boys, one Black and one white.

The teachers in the study spent 42% of the time with their eyes focused on the young Black boy. That subconscious bias in behavioral expectations has real-life consequences for students. Black preschool students are only 19% of the preschool population but are 47% of preschool suspensions.

One of my earliest memories in school was of my kindergarten teacher telling me she thought my mother did my homework because she did not believe that I could complete work of that caliber. And research backs this trend of doubt. When presented with poorly written essays, teachers are more likely to give more criticism and a lower grade when they believe the student to be white than they are when they believe the student is Black. Withholding feedback is a manifestation of a lack of belief and ultimately can stunt the development of a student.

Fortunately, expectations are not fixed. A 2015 study demonstrated that teachers who participated in a professional development series where they learned from the practices of educators with high expectations saw an increase in their own self-perceived expectations, which subsequently boosted student math scores.

A 2018 study further underscores the malleability of expectations and the outcomes that result from shifting them. It’s a common misconception that only those inherently skilled at math can excel in it, and teachers can sometimes fall prey to this belief as well. To challenge this notion, researchers provided professional development focused on the neuroscience of brain development and math acquisition. This approach successfully shifted teachers’ mindsets about math, leading to greater student self-efficacy and improved math performance.

Education is an industry so heavily studied that fortunately you can find an answer for everything. Best practices for holding students to high expectations are clear:

• Clear learning goals

• Positive feedback

• Engaging instruction

• Supportive environment

• Consistent monitoring

• Modeling a growth mindset

• And high-quality interactions.

Are all cited as best practices ways to set high expectations.

The challenge lies in fully committing to the belief that all students can achieve the high expectations of them.

For those who have historically been underserved, this doesn’t mean lowering standards; life can be tough, and we must prepare them for that. Educators working with students from diverse or disadvantaged backgrounds may need to step outside the classroom to engage with them in environments that honor their culture and highlight their strengths. Building relationships with families is crucial; understanding their aspirations for their children can provide invaluable insight. When I served as a grade team lead, we implemented a concept called “Outside Hours,” requiring us to visit students in their communities each semester. This initiative helped us learn about their lives and cultures, and I discovered that every parent I met held high expectations for their child. These families can become our strongest allies in fostering student success.

As simple as this may seem, let me be clear: it is anything but easy. High expectations can be inherently uncomfortable, yet they are the most crucial factor in our students’ achievement.

As we enter this new year, it is my resolution that we commit to embracing the discomfort, doing the self-work necessary to address our biases, and maintaining the discipline to hold our students to high expectations. Because this is the only way we will ever close the gap between our students’ performance and potential.

Markus Flynn, a former classroom teacher and a 2024 Public Voices Fellow with the OpEd Project, is the executive director of Black Men Teach, a Minnesota-based nonprofit headquartered in St. Paul.