With inflation still elevated, Federal Reserve officials expressed caution at their last meeting about cutting interest rates too quickly, adding to uncertainty about their next moves.

Even if inflation continued declining to the Fed’s 2% target, officials said, “it would likely be appropriate to move gradually” in lowering rates, according to minutes of the November 6-7 meeting.

The minutes don’t provide much guidance about what the Fed will do at its next meeting Dec. 17-18. Wall Street investors see the odds of another quarter-point reduction in the Fed’s key rate at that meeting as nearly even, according to CME Fedwatch. Most economists think officials will probably cut rates next month for the third time this year, but could then skip cutting at following meetings.

In September, the Fed signaled it would reduce its key rate as many as four times next year, but since then investors and economists have come to expect fewer cuts. The economy is growing at a solid pace, inflation is showing signs of getting stuck above the Fed’s target, and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals, particularly higher tariffs, could also accelerate inflation.

U.S. Consumer confidence ticks up on better outlook for hiring

Americans’ outlook on the economy improved modestly in November, lifted by expectations for lower inflation and more hiring.

The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked up to 111.7 from 109.6 in October. The small increase followed a big gain in October.

Rising consumer confidence suggests Americans may spend more in the coming months, which would help boost economic growth. Yet Americans have been spending at a healthy clip for much of the past two years even as confidence measures have been low, a sign that sentiment surveys may not be as useful a guide to the economy’s direction as they were in the past.

In the Conference Board’s report, the proportion of Americans who anticipate a recession in the next 12 months fell to the lowest level since the group first began asking the question in July 2022. And consumers’ optimism about future hiring rose to its highest level in nearly three years.

size of most single-family loans u.s. can guarantee is raised to $806,500

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is increasing the size of home loans that the government can guarantee against default as it takes into account rising housing prices.

Beginning next year, mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be able to acquire loans of up to $806,500 on single-family homes in most of the country, the agency said Tuesday.

The new conforming loan limit is a 5.2% increase from its 2024 level.

FHFA oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy home loans from banks and other lenders, guaranteeing them against default. The loans are then bundled into securities sold to investors.

The 2025 single-family home conforming loan limit will apply to most of the country, though the FHFA allows higher loan limits for certain states and counties where the local median home value is more than double the conforming loan limit.

The conforming loan limit for single-family homes in L.A. will be $1,209,750 starting next year.

Compiled from Associated Press reports.