When Broncos run: The good news — rookie R.J. Harvey is hitting his three-down stride at the perfect point in the season, putting together a 100-yard performance on 23 touches against the Raiders last Sunday. The other good news — Payton experimented to general success with a three-back system in Vegas, with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie both getting the occasional early-down touch. The Packers have one of the best overall defenses in the NFL, but they have surrendered some chunk yardage in recent weeks to backfield duos like the Bears’ D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai (a combined 120 rushing yards last Sunday) and the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (a combined 100 the week before). Edge: Even

When Broncos pass: The Packers don’t really get beat deep, allowing the eight-fewest yards per game on passes of 20-plus yards. They also definitely don’t get beat short, allowing the fewest yards per play on short passes of any NFL defense, according to Next Gen Stats. Quarterbacks have had the most success attacking Green Bay in the intermediate part of the field. On a related note, Bo Nix is 32nd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating on passes between 10 and 19 yards downfield. Edge: Packers

When Packers run: This depends entirely on Josh Jacobs’ status. Few offensive weapons across the NFL have tortured the Broncos like Jacobs in recent years, the former Raider battering ram: he’s run for 769 yards and nine touchdowns in eight total games against Denver in his career. Jacobs has continued to buoy Green Bay’s rushing attack in 2025, with 12 total touchdowns in 13 games, but has been iffy with a knee injury in Green Bay this week. Regardless if he plays, though, the Broncos have surrendered the fewest yards per play on the ground in the league. Slight edge: Broncos

When Packers pass: There’s been warning signs in the Broncos’ pass defense for a couple of weeks now, as teams like the Commanders and Raiders — that don’t exactly have dynamic passing games — have gotten smart about attacking weaknesses on the back-end. Safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Alex Singleton have both gotten picked on, and Denver’s had some communication breakdowns. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is getting the ball out quickly and efficiently, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said Green Bay might have a better stable of weapons than any team the Broncos have seen this season. Slight edge: Packers

Special teams: Hey, Brandon McManus is back! The former Broncos Super Bowl kicker has spent the past two seasons in Green Bay. McManus has struggled significantly in 2025, though, hitting just three of seven kicks from between 40 and 49 yards. The Packers also don’t have a particularly dynamic return game, and Broncos All-Pro Marvin Mims Jr. just got loose for the first punt-return TD of his career last week. Edge: Broncos

Coaching: This is tight. Packers head man Matt LaFleur has done top-tier work in 2025 in continuing to oversee Love’s development and turn Green Bay into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Packers’ offense is efficient. Their defense is smothering. But Payton is clicking the offensive pieces into place in Denver, and Joseph’s ability to control a ballgame remains virtually unmatched across the NFL. Slight edge: Broncos