The devastating wildfires ripping through the Los Angeles area are, first and foremost, a human tragedy, and all thoughts should be with both the victims as well as the first responders.
And while the full scale of the devastation is yet to be seen, there is undoubtedly a political aspect at play, particularly for California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Indeed, Newsom’s leadership during the state’s most horrific natural disaster in at least a century will have a lasting impact on not only his governorship, but also his White House ambitions, which I discussed last week in these pages.
To be clear, the introduction of politics into this ongoing disaster may seem out of place, especially as fires continue to rage and more than 100,000 Californians find themselves evacuating their homes.
However, in our hyper-politicized environment, these issues have already come to the forefront. And, unfortunately, many Americans will view this through a political lens in the coming months and years, as happened with hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, as well as other natural disasters.
In fact, the mudslinging has already begun, underscoring the political fallout this could have.
On Wednesday, President-elect Donald Trump attacked Newsom, branding him “Newscum,” for “gross incompetence and mismanagement” leading up to the fires, specifically criticizing California’s environmental policies.
Trump’s calculus, that the Democrats’ potential front-runner in 2028 is vulnerable, is clear, even if some of his criticism is misguided or mistimed.
What is less clear is whether or not Newsom will rise to the occasion, Trump’s insults notwithstanding.
Doing so would be a considerable boost to Newsom’s presidential ambitions, while failing would do potentially irreparable damage to his current term, as well as any future ambitions.
Thus far, Newsom seems to recognize the importance of even-keeled leadership that avoids being dragged into a political fight.
Speaking to CNN’s Anderson Cooper from the site of one of the fires, the governor said, “One can’t even respond” to Trump. He continued, “People are literally fleeing, people have lost their lives, kids lost their schools, families torn asunder ... this guy wants to politicize it.”
There are legitimate questions about California’s preparations for fires, and both Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will be held responsible for any missteps.
However, by refusing to take Trump’s bait at this time, Newsom took a good first step.
Of course, there is much more that Newsom must do if he hopes to come out of this disaster in a stronger political position than before.
California will soon require hundreds of millions of dollars from the Republican-controlled federal government, not including possible federal assistance dealing with insurance companies facing immense losses.
To that end, how Newsom manages the relationship between California and the Trump administration is now even more critical.
Prior to the fires, Newsom had positioned himself as the leader of the anti-Trump resistance, willing to confront the president’s policies on issues like climate mandates, abortion and immigration.
Now, Newsom will have to prove that he can work with Trump for the benefit of his state. If that means lowering the temperature on some of Trump’s plans to roll back electric vehicle tax credits or pass strict immigration reform, Newsom will have to pick his battles.
Maintaining open lines of communication and somewhat cordial relationships with Republicans will be absolutely necessary for California to receive the necessary economic support, but getting into the mud with Trump will harm those efforts.
Put another way, rising above the political fray and not clashing with Trump or the administration is absolutely essential to rebuild California and to keep Newsom’s status as a leading Democratic candidate in 2028 depend on it.
In that same vein, given the scope of the fires, Newsom will have to display strong executive leadership that Americans expect in a potential president. This involves competent management and coordination between local, state and federal agencies and ensuring that aid reaches where it is most needed. Mobilizing the state National Guard is a start, but this will be a massive effort, and Newsom must manage it effectively.
With Mayor Bass embroiled in her own controversies surrounding her stripping nearly $18 million from the fire department’s budget and failing to warn residents about the potential for a fire, Newsom must take ownership at a higher level.
Further, when the time comes to rebuild, Newsom should do everything possible to lower the regulatory burden on residents.
California’s suffocating building and insurance regulations mean thousands of impacted residents have no fire insurance, and the state’s Fair Plan — the insurer of last resort — is already overstretched, so a solution must be found that cuts through the red tape.
Similarly, Newsom would be wise to push through a revised state budget that accounts for the increased spending now necessary, even if it means clashing with progressive lawmakers.
To be sure, successfully managing a crisis can be a tailwind for politicians, while mismanagement can haunt their administrations for years to come.
Former President George W. Bush is still associated with bungling the response to Hurricane Katrina. At the same time, then-Gov. Chris Christie saw his approval rating jump 19 points (48% to 67%) for his handling of Hurricane Sandy.
Let me be clear, Newsom’s first priority should be delivering help to those who need it, working to contain the fires and then leading an immense rebuilding effort. His political ambitions should be secondary to that, yet the world we live in means politics are already a factor.
As such, Gavin Newsom now finds himself with an opportunity.
If he successfully leads Southern California through this disaster, he will further cement himself as the Democrats’ front-runner in 2028.
Conversely, if he allows himself to be distracted by political concerns or mismanages the recovery, he will find himself with little support and do considerable damage to his national profile.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.