Southern California had a record number of jobs in October, despite high interest rates chilling parts of the local economy.
My trusty spreadsheet, filled with state job figures released Friday, found a record 8.06 million at work in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in October. These monthly stats are not adjusted for seasonal swings.
The all-time high comes with a slower hiring pace. Between September and October, for example, employment in the four counties grew by 65,900 in a month. That’s a bit sluggish when compared with the 92,000 jobs added in the average October in 2015-19.
Remember, October is traditionally the largest month for local hiring as retailers and employers that serve them begin ramping up for holiday sales and schools finished restaffing after summer break. The recent hiring cooldown can also be seen looking back to October 2023. Over these 12 months, Southern California employment increased by 80,700 workers. In 2015-19, however, local bosses added 159,600 workers in an average year.
Fighting the Fed
A big headwind for employers has been the Federal Reserve. It began raising interest rates in March 2022 in an aggressive fight to tame high inflation. Those hikes, designed to cool an overheated economy, stopped in July 2023.
This September, the central bank made its first rate cut in four years as Fed officials believed inflation was largely under control. The central bank followed with another cut earlier this month.
Note that October’s added local workers didn’t dampen joblessness. The four-county unemployment rate was 5.6% in October, compared with 5.5% in the previous month, and 4.9% a year earlier. Joblessness averaged 4.7% in 2015-19.
October had 493,400 locals counted as officially out of work, up 2,000 in a month and up 59,800 in a year. The jobless count is 16% above the 424,700 average of pre-pandemic 2015-19.
The Southern California’s workforce — a measure of labor supply — was 8.85 million, down 60,200 in a month but up 59,200 in a year. This is just 2% above the 2015-19 average. A workers’ shortage is also another factor throttling the hiring pace.
Regional differences
Here’s how the job market performed in the region’s key metropolitan areas…
Los Angeles County: 4.62 million workers, after adding 37,600 in a month and growing by 45,900 in a year. Hiring averaged 47,880 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 6.1% vs. 6% a month earlier; 4.9% year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.
Orange County: Record 1.72 million workers, after adding 11,400 in a month and growing by 11,200 in a year. Hiring averaged 18,920 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 4.1% — same as a month earlier but above 3.8% a year ago and 3.6% average in 2015-19.
Inland Empire: Record 1.72 million workers, after adding 16,900 in a month and growing by 23,600 in a year. Hiring averaged 25,180 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 5.5% vs. 5.4% a month earlier; 5.1% year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.
Industry swings
When looking at 15 Southern California business sectors, October’s biggest job gainer was government. Its 1.03 million workers was up 16,700 in a month vs. average 26,120 hires in 2015-19. It’s up 11,600 in a year.
The largest job cuts were in manufacturing: 558,400 workers — down 3,300 in a month vs. average 980 cuts in 2015-19. It’s down 15,300 in a year.
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