Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink in 2033, undermining the nation’s economic growth, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday, bringing forward its estimate by seven years.

Annual deaths are projected to exceed the number of births in the U.S. just eight years from now, at which point net immigration would drive population growth, according to the CBO’s long-term budget outlook report. Last year, the CBO estimated the U.S. population would begin to shrink in 2040.

The latest projections by the nonpartisan arm of Congress also underscored the likelihood of weaker economic growth in coming decades.

Gross domestic product is forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.6% over the next 30 years, compared with the 2.5% average increase over the last three decades, the report said. The slowdown is due to both a weaker pace of expansion in the labor force — as the population ages and increases more modestly in coming decades — and less robust productivity gains.

Senate leader pushes estate tax repeal

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pitched a full repeal of the estate tax Wednesday, setting as a priority the elimination of the levy on the fortunes of some of the wealthiest Americans as Republicans draft a massive economic package.

Thune’s push for repealing the 40% tax on the wealth of the richest US individuals when they die puts the effort — a longtime goal of the Republican Party — in the mix as Thune and other Republican leaders debate the size and scope of a massive tax cut bill.

Republicans are aiming to approve a multitrillion-dollar tax bill in the coming months that renews President Donald Trump’s 2017 cuts, along with a fresh round of levy reductions. House and Senate Republicans are currently negotiating the size of the tax package, which will determine how many new cuts can become law.

The party has a long and growing list of expensive tax changes, and constraints on the overall size of the bill mean they won’t be able to include every desired item.

Treasury moves to boost financial program

The Treasury department has moved to protect a financial program for low-income and under-served communities after President Donald Trump ordered its functions eliminated to the maximum extent legally allowed.

The Community Development Financial Institutions Fund is responsible for 11 programs or functions, all of which are legally required, the Treasury said in a report to the Office of Management and Budget that was seen by Bloomberg News.

“The CDFI Fund is performing its statutory functions as required by law,” the report states, noting that the Treasury will, on an ongoing basis, “identify opportunities for improvement and enhance efficiencies.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had been trying to preserve the CDFI Fund while balancing Trump’s agenda to reduce federal spending

Spokespeople for the Treasury department and the White House didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Small businesses struggle with sales

More small-business owners reported a decline in sales last year than an increase, the first time that’s been the case since 2021, according to an annual survey by the Federal Reserve.

Business owners reported operational challenges including rising costs and wages, Fed analysts said Thursday in a report based on the Small Business Credit Survey. That research was carried out between September and early November of last year, before the presidential election.

For the majority of firms, profitability remained elusive. Roughly one in five reported that they broke even in the 12 months before the survey and 35% said they posted a loss. Still, owners were broadly optimistic, with 58% saying they expected revenue to increase in the next 12 months.

The survey predates the return of President Donald Trump to the White House, which has raised a new set of issues for U.S. entrepreneurs. An index of small-business optimism surged after Trump was elected, and many companies are enthused by his proposals to cut taxes and regulation, but there’s also mounting concern that his tariffs will raise prices and squeeze margins.

Compiled from Bloomberg reports.