Geopolitics haven’t historically complicated annual fireworks shows, including the marquee extravaganza over the Detroit River scheduled for Monday — but that could be changing.

Many of the show’s viewers watch from the Detroit River’s south bank in Canada, a country where many have been offended by President Donald Trump’s musings about making it the 51st U.S. state. And nearly all fireworks in the United States are imported from China, Trump’s biggest adversary in his global trade war.

The trans-Pacific tension appears to be affecting the festivities already: Zambelli, the Pennsylvania-based company that supplies and sets up the Ford Fireworks display, said it ate higher production costs this year rather than pass them on to the Detroit-based Parade Company, which hosts the event, and Ford Motor Co., the event’s lead sponsor.

And Zambelli is warning that tariff “volatility” — a concern voiced by many economists and business leaders — could threaten the fireworks industry’s ability to meet the high demand it is likely to face for Fourth of July 2026, marking the United States’ 250th anniversary.

Whether Trump’s rhetoric around Canada will have much impact on the event — which, in past years, was billed as a celebration of the countries’ close ties — is still unclear. But Windsor restaurant manager Brad Dunlop of Jose’s Bar and Grill said he thinks a tariff-induced slowdown in manufacturing there might actually free up more Canadians than in past years to watch the fireworks.

And like any other year, the company putting on Monday night’s show said the national anthem, “O Canada,” will be sung, and the nation’s maple leaf flag will be flown from a helicopter.

“It’s not our position to make political statements and things like that,” said Tony Michaels, the president and CEO of the Parade Company, adding: “I hope our neighbors enjoy the show.”

Impact on costs, supply

Julie Heckman, executive director of the American Pyrotechnics Association, said that costs for this year’s Fourth of July celebrations will be virtually the same as last year’s because fireworks companies can still rely on inventory they had shipped from China before Trump’s tariffs went into effect. That bodes well for upcoming fireworks displays across Metro Detroit.It’s next year — when communities will want to go all out with their fireworks for the nation’s 250th birthday — that worries Heckman. That’s a central reason her association is calling on the Trump administration to grant a tariff exemption for fireworks similar to the one it approved in 2019.

“We support America First policies,” Heckman said. “Our base probably supported the current president. It’s not political for us, we’re just trying to make the case for ‘you understand our unique reliance on China, and we should be exempt again.’”

According to the APA, 99% of the world’s consumer fireworks and 90% of its professional display fireworks come from China.

Zambelli, which supplies pyrotechnics for Ford Fireworks and is a member of the APA, said that it has already seen cost challenges this year, and is also hoping for a tariff exemption: “Unlike other industries, we cannot shift sourcing quickly or renegotiate pricing within our tight seasonal windows,” the company said in a statement to The Detroit News. “Looking ahead to 2026 and the nation’s 250th anniversary, stability in trade policy will be essential.”

Zambelli President Michael Hartman said in a separate statement that this year his company absorbed higher production costs for the Ford Fireworks display rather than pass them on to Parade Company. He said that to produce the same quality of show in 2026 as it’s putting on this year, Zambelli would need to see increased contributions for the fireworks display from the “good people” at the Parade Company and its sponsors.

Michaels, the president and CEO of the Parade Company, said that while his company negotiated with Zambelli to pay the same for the fireworks display this year as it did last, the firm would consider paying more next year if necessary.

“We at the Parade Company, like every other company, negotiates their price. It’s good business” Michaels said. “So absolutely, if (Zambelli’s) price goes up next year, we will take a look at it, see where it’s at, and then we make decisions from there, just like any other well-run business.”

Trump’s frequently fluctuating tariff policies have hampered the fireworks industry’s ability to plan business decisions for the future and have already strained supply, according to the APA and Zambelli. Those concerns closely mirror those expressed by industries across the economy amid on-again, off-again tariffs.

Trump’s 125% tariff on Chinese imports in early April took effect during peak shipping season for the fireworks industry, Heckman said. That led large sectors of the industry to cancel orders, figuring that they had enough inventory for the Fourth of July and couldn’t afford the tariffed shipments anyway.

Michigan Fireworks Co. in South Lyon was one such company: “We could not take something that was 50 bucks and sell it to someone for $125,” said Eric Konopka, the store’s owner. “Good conscience wouldn’t let us do that. It wasn’t worth it.”

Canceled shipments were then left in Chinese factories, which Heckman said had a compounding effect. Fireworks production facilities have to be extra cautious not to overcrowd their space, given the explosiveness of what they’re producing, so most factories halted their production at that point: “We lost a couple months of critical manufacturing time.”

That will mean limited fireworks supplies, which will compound once more with the 30% tariff currently on Chinese imports — a trend Heckman called “unsustainable.” And that’s not to mention the possibility that the rate will revert back to triple-digits when Trump’s 90-day pause on higher Chinese tariffs expires in early July.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now, which is making it very difficult for these small, multi-generational family businesses, including Zambelli, to make business decisions,” she said, referencing the Pennsylvania-based company that supplies and sets up the annual pyrotechnics in Detroit.

Konopka, the owner of the fireworks store in South Lyon, said prices for the “bigger stuff” in his shop are largely the same as last year because he’s relying on inventory ordered last July and shipped to the United States in January, before tariffs went into effect.

Still, Konopka said he recently “allowed one container to come in for some little stuff,” gesturing toward a rack of sparklers and small fireworks, when the tariff rate was at 30%. Prices on those goods have risen by about $1, he said.

“If you’re in our store from this year to last year, 95% of the stuff is exactly the same price,” he said.

However, Konopka said the fireworks “tents,” commonly set up outside of grocery stores, and other fireworks retailers that weren’t able to stock up before tariffs went into effect will inevitably be hurt as they look toward New Year’s and next summer.

“You will see significant firework shortages at the end of this year,” he said.

Konopka, who works as a financial adviser, owns the fireworks store as a “hobby” with his wife Jessica, a nurse. Though Trump’s tariffs will make his job in the fireworks industry “difficult,” he said tariffs are a necessary tool to motivate countries to strike more balanced trade agreements with the United States.

Feet away sat a box of “Make America Great Again” fireworks, with an AI-rendered Trump celebrating in front of the White House, red and yellow fireworks lighting up the skies.

New questions over U.S.-Canada relations

In times past, the fireworks over the Detroit River have been expressly billed as a celebration of neighborly appreciation between the United States and Canada. Established in 1959, the Detroit-Windsor International Freedom Festival ran for decades as a days-long celebration in late June and early July, according to the Detroit Historical Society. They commemorated both Canada Day on July 1, and Independence Day on July 4.

Then in 2007, the festivities were separated into two autonomously operated events. But the fireworks display — which has been sponsored by American companies Hudson’s, Target Corp. and now Ford Motor Co. — has maintained its Canadian appreciation. A helicopter flies a Canadian flag overhead, and the event kicks off with both countries’ national anthems.

This year’s Ford Fireworks, though, come at a time of unprecedented tension between the United States and Canada. Trump’s tariffs have hurt the country’s economy, and his flirtations with annexation have angered many of the famously friendly Canadians, with some even booing the U.S. national anthem at NHL games.

That presidential static is slowing Canadians’ travel to the United States this summer, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The number of people crossing into Michigan from Canada fell 13% in April and 16% in May.

Nevertheless, Brad Dunlop, the manager of Jose’s Bar and Grill in Windsor, said he thinks Windsorites will have no problem staying in Canada and “spending the money in our own country” to watch the fireworks, where the view is better anyway.

“We have the bigger waterfront,” he said.

Dunlop said the “Trump ordeal” has frustrated plenty of Canadians and caused them not to travel to the United States, but that he thinks attendance in Windsor for the fireworks will be the same as always, if not even higher this year. He attributes that to the tariff-induced slowdown in manufacturing in Windsor, which he said could free up more people’s schedules.

And, given the cost-effectiveness of watching fireworks amid Canada’s economic woes, Dunlop said he thinks people in Windsor will be especially motivated to attend the festivities.

“With the economy the way it is, especially in Windsor with manufacturing — it’s a free show,” he said. “I think you’re going to see families go down because it’s something you can do for free.”