Wisconsin’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race pitted two-term Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin against Republican Eric Hovde, a millionaire businessman backed by former President Donald Trump who poured millions of his own money into the contest.
Late Tuesday, Hovde held a 2 percentage point lead with 80% of precincts reporting.
A win by Baldwin was crucial for Democrats to retain their 51-49 majority in the Senate, Republicans nevertheless took control of the chamber with other victories.
While Baldwin’s voting record is liberal, she emphasized bipartisanship throughout the campaign. Baldwin became the first statewide Democratic candidate to win an endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau, the state’s largest farm organization, in more than 20 years.
Her first television ad noted that her buy-American bill was signed into law by Trump. In July, she touted Senate committee approval of a bill she co-authored with Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, that seeks to ensure that taxpayer-funded inventions are manufactured in the United States.
Hovde tried to portray Baldwin as an out-of-touch liberal career politician who didn’t do enough to combat inflation, illegal immigration and crime.
About 4 in 10 Wisconsin voters said the economy and jobs is the top issue facing the country, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 110,000 voters nationally, including more than 3,400 voters in Wisconsin. About 2 in 10 Wisconsin voters said immigration is the most pressing issue, and more than 1 in 10 named abortion.
Almost half of voters said they had a very or somewhat favorable view of Baldwin. A similar proportion said they had a very or somewhat favorable view of Hovde. About 4 in 10 Wisconsin voters said party control was the single most important factor in their vote.
Hovde’s wealth, primarily his management of Utah-based Sunwest Bank and ownership of a $7 million Laguna Beach, California, estate, has been a key line of attack from Baldwin, who has tried to cast him as an outsider who doesn’t represent Wisconsin values.
Baldwin also attacked Hovde over his opposition to abortion rights.
Hovde said he supported the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, but said he would not vote for a federal law banning abortion, leaving it to the states to decide. That is a change of his position from his last run for Senate in 2012, when he “totally opposed” abortion.
Baldwin’s television ads hit on a consistent theme that Hovde insulted farmers, older residents, parents and others. Hovde, who was born in Madison and owns a house there, accused Baldwin of distorting his comments, lying about his record and misleading voters.
Baldwin won her first Senate race in 2012, against popular former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson, by almost 6 percentage points. Hovde lost to Thompson in that year’s primary.
Hovde attacked Baldwin for being in elected office since 1987, including the past 12 years in the Senate and 14 in the House before that.
Congressional races
A first-term Wisconsin Republican who was in the nation’s Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection was vying for a second term Tuesday, while another candidate running with the backing of Trump kept an open district under GOP control.
A former Democratic congressman and state lawmaker tried to defeat a Republican in southeast Wisconsin.
Here are the three most-watched congressional races in Wisconsin:
Democrats eye flip in western Wisconsin
Western Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, which had been represented by a Democrat for 26 years before it flipped in 2022 with the win by Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, is the most competitive district in the state.
Van Orden is a former Navy SEAL who was at the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and remains one of Trump’s loudest backers in Wisconsin.
He is a top target for Democrats. Former small-business owner and political activist Rebecca Cooke won a three-person primary to take on Van Orden. She has raised more money than any other Democratic challenger in the state, a sign of Democratic optimism for the race.
With the Mississippi River and Minnesota to the west, the district includes the rolling hills of the Driftless Area and Chippewa Falls. From Illinois, it stretches 250 miles north past Prairie du Chien, known for its Cabela’s outdoor gear distribution center and 19th-century riverside historic sites.
Trump-backed candidate takes open seat
Former gas station chain owner Tony Wied, running his first race, won the contest for northeast Wisconsin’s open congressional district, defeating an abortion rights advocate.
Wied had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump in his race against Dr. Kristin Lyerly, an obstetrician who sued to overturn Wisconsin’s abortion ban.
Lyerly tried to make the race in the heavily Republican district about abortion.
The seat was vacant after the surprise resignation earlier this year of Republican Mike Gallagher, a sometime critic of Trump’s.
The heavily Republican district includes cities such as Green Bay as well as rural areas.
Lyerly’s campaign spokesperson, Kurt Frewing, didn’t immediately respond to email and voicemail messages late Tuesday evening.
Wied promised in a statement to bring “some Wisconsin commonsense to Washington to lower everyday costs, secure the southern border, and reign in out-of-control government spending.”
Republican wins reelection
Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil won reelection to a fourth term representing southeast Wisconsin.
He defeated Peter Barca, the last Democrat to hold the seat in 1995. Barca served less than two years.
Barca previously served two stints in the state Legislature over more than 18 years and resigned after more than five years as state revenue secretary to take on Steil.
The seat, once held by former Speaker Paul Ryan, was made more competitive for Democrats following the latest round of redistricting. The district north of Illinois includes the cities of Kenosha, Racine and Janesville.
Barca campaign manager Ryan Paolilli didn’t immediately return a voicemail message late Tuesday evening. Steil campaign spokesperson Grace White didn’t immediately return email and voicemail messages. The National Republican Congressional Committee issued a statement calling Steil a “strong and pragmatic leader” who will fight to secure the border and lower the cost of living.
State Capitol voting
Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment in Tuesday’s elections that bars foreign nationals from voting in the state. They were also set to decide whether Republicans will retain control the Legislature but the balance of power was still unclear late in the evening.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake for the Legislature and the Republican-authored constitutional amendment designed to ensure only U.S. citizens can vote in Wisconsin:
Wisconsin Legislature
Republicans seized control of both the Assembly and the Senate in 2010. The next year they redrew district boundaries to consolidate their power and have held the majority in both houses for the last 13 years.
The political landscape shifted dramatically last year, though, after liberal justices won control of the state Supreme Court and invalidated the Republican district maps. That move opened the door for Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to redraw the lines, giving his party hope of making substantial gains in both chambers.
Republicans hold a 64-35 edge in the Assembly, but redistricting and retirements have left 57 seats open and 15 Democrats unopposed. Democratic leaders believe they have a shot at retaking the majority. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has downplayed any potential Democratic gains, pointing out that the party has never come close to the majority in more than a decade.
Democrats face tougher odds in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 22-11 edge. Ten Republican seats and six Democratic seats are up this cycle. Democrats need 12 wins to reach the 17 seats needed for a majority. That means they’ll have to hold all six of their seats and flip at least six Republican ones, a near impossible task even given the new district lines. Democratic leaders have acknowledged that Tuesday is about setting themselves up for a 2026 run at the majority.
Citizenship voting amendment
Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment in Tuesday’s elections that prohibits foreign nationals from voting in the state.
“Voters have delivered an unmistakable message: Wisconsin elections will be decided by U.S. citizens, not far-left activists who would turn the ballot box into a petri dish for extremist policies,” state Republican Party Chair Brian Schimming said in a statement.
Republicans across the country have been pushing voters to adopt constitutional amendments that explicitly prohibit non-U.S. citizens from voting. The move was spurred by the District of Columbia and municipalities in California, Maryland and Vermont allowing non-citizens to vote in local elections.
The Wisconsin Constitution states that every U.S. citizen who is at least 18 can vote. The amendment revises that language to read that only U.S. citizens can vote in federal, state and local elections held in Wisconsin.
The amendment was on the ballot in seven other states besides Wisconsin this cycle, according to Ballotpedia. North Dakota, Alabama, Florida, Colorado, Ohio and Louisiana have already adopted it.
Democrats contend the measures could create hurdles for legal voters and lead people to believe that the problem of noncitizens voting is bigger than it really is. Data from states indicates that voting by noncitizens is rare.