A few weeks ago we were talking about the Red Sox possibly entering the season with a six-man rotation, but baseball being baseball, the odds of everyone making it to Opening Day without at least one injury was always low.

Now two weeks into camp, opportunity could be knocking for a couple of Boston’s up-and-coming young starters.

With Kutter Crawford likely to open the season on the 15-day injured list and Brayan Bello’s availability also in question, the Red Sox may have an opening for their No. 5 starter spot. That’s good news for Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts, both of whom were previously projected to start the season in Worcester but who now may have more to shoot for than just a spot in the hierarchy.

Will one of them make the team? And how else could injuries impact the final puzzle? There is still a lot of spring training left, but we’ve seen enough to take another crack at projecting the Red Sox’s Opening Day roster.

Starting rotation

MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Quinn Priester (L)

MiLB depth: Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Michael Fulmer, Brian Van Belle

15-day IL: Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford; 60-day IL: Patrick Sandoval (L)

Priester and Fitts appear to be the frontrunners for the first depth starter spot, and over the past few days their competition really started to heat up.

Priester started Boston’s first Grapefruit League game of the spring, allowing one run on two hits over two innings in his debut last Saturday against Tampa Bay. On Thursday he got the start again against Detroit, throwing two scoreless with one strikeout, two hits and two walks. Considering both of Fitts’ first outings came out of the bullpen, the favorable early look for Priester seemed noteworthy.

That being said, Fitts really turned heads on Friday.

After tossing two scoreless innings in his first outing against Toronto on Sunday, Fitts came out throwing heaters against Philadelphia his second time out. Fitts’ fastball averaged 97.1 mph, significantly higher than his 94.5 mph average at the end of last season, and he even topped out at 99 mph against Bryce Harper.

If Fitts is going to keep throwing gas like that, it’ll be hard to deny him a spot in the big leagues. For now we’ll project Priester as the No. 5 man, but this battle is very much still up in the air.

Beyond that spot there isn’t much else to discuss. Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck and Walker Buehler will be the top three guys in the rotation, and Lucas Giolito seems on track for Opening Day as well.

Bullpen

MLB: Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman (L), Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Wilson (L), Adam Ottavino, Luis Guerrero, Cooper Criswell

MiLB depth: Austin Adams, Brennan Bernardino (L), Isaiah Campbell, Noah Davis, Zack Kelly, Bryan Mata, Wyatt Mills, Jovani Moran (L), Sean Newcomb (L), Robert Stock, Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski

15-day IL: Chris Murphy (L); 60-day IL: Zach Penrod (L)

Opt out: Matt Moore (L)

This has become an interesting and dynamic situation. With the six-man rotation no longer in play for Opening Day the Red Sox have three bullpen jobs up for grabs, and there are probably seven or eight guys with a plausible path for a spot.

The most interesting to watch are Adam Ottavino and Matt Moore, both established veterans who recently signed on minor league deals. Because Ottavino and Moore each have more than six years of service time and finished last season on a big league roster, they have opt outs baked into their contract that will allow them to hit free agency if they don’t make the team. That means they probably can’t be stashed in the minors, so if they pitch well and the Red Sox want to keep them, they’re getting a spot.

Could they both make the Opening Day roster? It’s possible, but the Red Sox have an incentive to choose one or the other.

Because they don’t have any minor league options remaining, Ottavino and Moore would both have to stay on the big league roster, and taking both would leave the Red Sox with only one spot for a pitcher who could be freely optioned to Triple-A. With all the depth the club has at its disposal, the Red Sox will most likely want to preserve at least two spots for maximum flexibility, so for our purposes we’ll project Ottavino on the roster and Moore using his opt out, simply because Ottavino is coming off the better 2024 season.

As for those remaining two spots, Luis Guerrero has to be considered the favorite of the remaining con

tenders. He was dominant in his September cameo last fall and pitched brilliantly through his first three spring outings (3 innings, 0 runs, 6 strikeouts). Then the final spot will either go to a bulk reliever — the role Chase Anderson filled last season — or to either Greg Weissert or Zack Kelly. I think the Red Sox will want a long man, so perhaps that’s how Cooper Criswell makes the roster even if he doesn’t get the No. 5 starter spot.

Catcher

MLB: Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez

MiLB depth: Nathan Hickey, Mark Kolozsvary, Blake Sabol, Seby Zavala

Connor Wong has been limited throughout camp so far due to a sore shoulder, but he’s going to be the everyday catcher once the regular season gets going.

As for who will be his backup, that job is still up for grabs.

Carlos Narvaez appears to be the favorite, but there’s been very little separation between the contenders as far as playing time, role or production. Narvaez entered Saturday with a slim lead for the most innings caught in Grapefruit League action, and he, Blake Sabol and Seby Zavala have all been non-factors at the plate — though admittedly in tiny sample sizes.

Narvaez has drawn rave reviews for his defense since the moment he was acquired, so for now we’ll go with him as the backup and see how things progress in the coming weeks.

Infielders

MLB: Triston Casas (1B), Vaughn Grissom (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Alex Bregman (3B), Rafael Devers (DH), David Hamilton (Util.), Romy Gonzalez (Util.)

MiLB depth: Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Nick Sogard, Abraham Toro

The Red Sox may still decide to keep Rafael Devers at third base and go with Alex Bregman at second, but it seems like the club really wants Bregman to play third. In order for that to happen, the Red Sox really need to figure out what they’re going to do with Masataka Yoshida.

Yoshida has been cleared to play in games as a DH, but he still needs more recovery time from October’s shoulder surgery before he’s ready to throw. That means he can’t play outfield yet, and Cora has said on multiple occasions that for the roster to function, they need Yoshida to play in the field. Is it possible the Red Sox could start Yoshida on the IL even if he’s been playing in games as a DH for nearly a month? I think that’s a distinct possibility. If nothing else, it might buy the club time with some other difficult decisions.

As for who could start at second base if not Bregman, this past week has been illuminating.

So far Vaughn Grissom has been given the starter treatment. He’s started home games with the clear-cut first-teamers, hasn’t had to go on the longer road trips, and when he, David Hamilton and Kristian Campbell are all available, he’s gotten the start at second base. He hasn’t done much in his limited plate appearances — he’s 1 for 10 through four games — but if the season began today all indications are he’d be the second baseman.

That being said, Hamilton has been by far the best performer of the three. He’s stood out on offense and defense, and his speed, baserunning ability and positional versatility should make him a virtual lock to make the Opening Day roster, either as the starting second baseman or in a utility bench role. If there winds up being a roster crunch Hamilton could potentially also bump Romy Gonzalez from the equation, though either Gonzalez or Abraham Toro seems likely to earn a bench spot since the Red Sox don’t have anyone else who could serve as a backup first baseman.

Campbell, on the other hand, has not performed well through the first two weeks of games. Unless he turns things around and goes on a tear, he’ll most likely start the season in Worcester.

Outfielders

MLB: Jarren Duran (LF), Ceddanne Rafaela (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Rob Refsnyder (OF)

MiLB depth: Roman Anthony, Nate Eaton, Jhostynxon Garcia, Trayce Thompson

15-day IL: Masataka Yoshida

There are three ways this could go. One, we get the status quo outfield alignment of Jarren Duran in left, Ceddanne Rafaela in center and Wilyer Abreu in right. Two, Yoshida is able to play the field and the club decides to re-install him as the starting left fielder, freeing up the DH spot for Devers, moving Duran to center and bumping Rafaela to the bench. Or three, Roman Anthony forces his way into the equation and takes the left field job for himself.

Anthony has gotten off to a strong start, but whether or not he makes the Opening Day roster will still depend a lot on factors outside of his control. Where will Devers and Bregman play? Will Yoshida start the season on the IL or not? Hamilton winning the second base job would help, since Grissom would most likely go to Worcester in that event, but barring any injuries it’s just going to be a really crowded picture.

The top prospect has so far done what he needs to give himself a chance, but he’ll need to continue making a strong impression in the coming days and weeks.

If Anthony doesn’t upset the apple cart, the Red Sox outfield situation should be fairly straightforward. Bet on Duran, Rafaela and Abreu with Rob Refsnyder coming off the bench in his usual role as lefty-killer. Abreu missed the first two weeks with a viral gastrointestinal illness but has been cleared to resume baseball activities and presumably should be ready by Opening Day.