Southern California shoppers are seeing an unwelcome return of worrisome inflation.

My trusty spreadsheet looked at what shoppers pay for goods and services by combining three regional Consumer Price Indexes into a two-month average of the monthly benchmark for Los Angeles and Orange counties and the bimonthly yardsticks for the Inland Empire and San Diego County.

By this math, local inflation ran at a 3.4% annual pace in January. That’s up from 3.2% a year earlier and the highest since June 2024. It’s another curve from inflation’s wild swings since coronavirus upended the economy in early 2020.

Local prices rose an average 2.8% in 2019 before inflation soared to 8.6% in April 2022. Inflation festered as twisted supply chains made many items hard to find. Plus, generous government aid kept consumers in a buying mood.

However, the Federal Reserve began boosting interest rates in early 2022 to cool the overheated business climate as pandemic-era stimulus ran dry. Inflation fell to 2.4% in September 2024.

A resilient local and national economy has again boosted prices and kept inflation stubbornly above an ideal pace. Remember, Southern California has a record number of jobs — not to mention generous pay raises — that keep shoppers shopping even with today’s lofty price tags.

Revived inflation will likely prevent the Fed from restarting the modest interest rate cuts it began in late 2024. This is bad news for borrowers, especially affordability-starved house hunters hoping for lower mortgage rates.

Ponder annualized inflation rates within the region …

LA-Orange County: Inflation was 3.3% in January, down from December’s 3.4%, which was the highest since May 2024. It was 2.5% in January 2024 and averaged 3.1% in 2019. Inflation jumped to 8.6% in June 2022 and fell to 2.4% in October 2023.

Inland Empire: 2.9% in January, the highest since May 2024 — but the same as January 2024. Price gains averaged 2.9% in 2019, jumped to 10% in March 2022, and fell to 1.1% in November 2024.

San Diego: 3.8% in January, the highest since November 2023 but the same as January 2024. Inflation averaged 2.4% in 2019, jumped to 8.3% in May 2022, and fell to 2.5% in September 2024.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com