It’s true most years, out of the last 96. The Academy Awards — judging from the films and artists nominated and by the eventual winners — divides itself into two groups. One reminds us of a familiar moviegoing past. And one looks forward to whatever future the industry can make for itself.
Take the 10 nominees for best picture this year. The front-runner, with very real chances of not winning, is writer, director and editor Sean Baker’s “Anora.” It’s a terrific movie, I think, as well as a film many hate for many reasons. (Welcome to the movies!)
It draws from screwball comedy, romantic comedy and Baker’s restlessly inquisitive eye, but it’s ultimately heartbreaking and full of every kind of surprise. Despite its genre roots, it’s more a film of the present and is Baker’s latest example of why he’s a front-rank American filmmaker, having already made “Tangerine,” “The Florida Project” and other pungent slices of lives from the America we typically stroll past, nervously, on the way to wherever.
Now, take “Conclave,” which isn’t about sex workers but has just enough sexual intrigue to perk up its swiftly paced two- hour ticktock of a papal selection process.
It’s a film I enjoy a lot for its precision- tooled, straight-faced commitment to a political thriller with big reveals arriving every 10 or 12 minutes, right on time. The work is high commercial craftsmanship, and it’s truly a bummer that Ralph Fiennes can’t headline a whole franchise of Vatican scandal mysteries.
That’s a film that takes us back. And as I understand the Academy’s ranked voting ballot, “Conclave” might very well end up the winner, because it’s likely to end up as the second or third favorite choice on ballots. As might “The Brutalist” or “Emilia Pérez” or even “A Complete Unknown.”
I take particular heart this year from a couple of nominations, despite being “wait, what?” (which is the case with the Oscars every year) with some of the choices.
To see a film as visually daring and poetically sure as “Nickel Boys” eke out a best picture nomination: wonderful.
To see “The Substance” (a pretty sure Oscar bet for Demi Moore) in both the direction and best picture categories: Uh, what about almost anything other than “The Substance,” a Hollywood takedown designed for Hollywood adoration?
I leave you with “Anora” and “The Brutalist” as two highlights from the past year that tell us something about where we are as a film culture right now.
Where we are is not a secure place. These are not secure business times for the industry, or secure, period, for many many millions of us in this country. Audiences have been encouraged a little too relentlessly to stay home and stream something instead of going out to see something.
“Anora” and “The Brutalist” borrow from the past in so many ways, and I’ve heard everything from deep gratitude to true loathing from friends, relatives and Chicago Tribune subscribers about both films. That crazy range of opinion means we’re getting somewhere.
Co-writer and director Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” was shot on film, in the nearly vanished VistaVision format, and while it gets a little lost in its second half — the third time I saw it, the thinness of the sniveling plutocratic characters became all too clear — it’s nonetheless an astounding creative achievement.
So is “Anora,” a film of equal visual panache, also shot on film, also widescreen.
You can, of course, put a number on both achievements, and the number is roughly the same.
Distributed by A24, “The Brutalist” has grossed $15 million domestically and $22 million in other countries, for a $36 million total as of this writing on a craftily deployed production budget of $10 million.
“Anora” has the same story, nearly, with a worldwide total of $38 million. Baker’s production budget has been reported at $6 million.
These are good-news stories, if you can ignore all the asterisks attached.
Should the box-office figures be higher? Would they have been higher pre-COVID? Yes, and yes. Did the filmmakers cut corners to make these movies and make them their own? Of course; even directors working with a quarter-billion dollar budget will talk about corners cut and visual effects that needed redoing and this and that.
But the work is inspiring. Maybe movies like “Anora” and “The Brutalist” and “Nickel Boys” can remind big studio and streaming conglomerates — the folks who didn’t produce these films — what it’s like to see a film of true nerve and fresh instincts find an audience. And maybe they’ll get back in the game of backing more movies in the medium-budget range, though “Anora” and “The Brutalist” fell well below that. Because there’s a future in that, for us all.
Meantime: Some Oscar predictions for your Sunday night party, guaranteed to astound you with their possible inaccuracy. May all your favorite win everything.
The 97th Academy Awards ceremony at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles will be broadcast Sunday on ABC and stream on Hulu.
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
What will win: “Anora”
What should win: “Nickel Boys”
Directing
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Who will win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Who should win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Who should win: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Who will win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Who should win: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Who should win: Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who will win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who should win: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys” (not nominated in this category)
Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”
What will win: “Nickel Boys”
What should win: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
“The Substance”
What will win: “Anora”
What should win: “Anora”
Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
What will win: “The Wild Robot”
What should win: “Flow”
Animated Short
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
What will win: “Wander to Wonder”
What should win: “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
What will win: “The Brutalist”
What should win: “Nickel Boys” (not nominated in this category)
Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
What will win: “Wicked”
What should win: “Nosferatu”
Film Editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
What will win: “Anora”
What should win: “Conclave”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
What will win: “The Substance”
What should win: “A Different Man”
Live Action Short Film
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
What will win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
What should win: “The Last Ranger”
Original Score
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
What will win: “The Brutalist”
What should win: “The Brutalist”
Original Song
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
What will win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
What should win: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
What will win: “Porcelain War”
What should win: “No Other Land”
Documentary Short
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
What will win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
What should win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
International Feature Film
“I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
“The Girl With the Needle” (Denmark)
“Emilia Pérez” (France)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
“Flow” (Latvia)
What will win: “Emilia Pérez” (France)
What should win: “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
Production Design
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
What will win: “The Brutalist”
What should win: “The Brutalist”
Sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
What will win: “Dune: Part Two”
What should win: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
What will win: “Dune: Part Two”
What should win: “Dune: Part Two”
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