Jim Weller’s June 24 Guest Commentary on the Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail Project asks us to “stay calm and carry on.” But when it comes to the financial future of Santa Cruz County, calm should not mean complacent.

Let’s start with the basics. Even using Weller’s own optimistic numbers, the train would require $120 per year for every person in the county — indefinitely. That includes toddlers. That includes people who will never ride the train. And it doesn’t even include the cost of borrowing or cost overruns, which are inevitable in mega projects.

Weller tries to soothe readers by calling the $4.28 billion price tag a “worst-case” estimate. But in public infrastructure, so-called worst-case estimates often turn out to be optimistic. The consultants’ figure is in 2025 dollars and assumes the cheapest possible design, while ignoring major unanswered questions — like how to resolve the alignment at the Boardwalk — that could add significant costs. Even using Weller’s preferred figure of $3.5 billion, that still works out to $160 million per mile — more than double the per-mile cost of the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit and astounding by any measure.

And since the estimate is in today’s dollars, inflation alone could push the total cost much higher by the time the project is complete — potentially by billions.

He also assumes Santa Cruz County will only need to fund 20% of the total cost, with the rest coming from federal and state sources. But that 80% “outside” funding is the most optimistic case. It’s not guaranteed. And even to qualify for those funds, the county would need to pass a local sales tax measure. That requires a two-thirds majority — a very high bar for such a costly and uncertain project. Even then, federal transit grants won’t release a dime until that local tax is already in place, so residents would start paying up front, with no guarantee the outside money will ever arrive.

Weller claims the Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail Project won’t impact the county budget. That is technically true but deeply misleading. Sales tax dollars don’t come from nowhere. They are limited and shared. Metro relies on sales tax revenue for almost half of its budget. Any new tax to fund the train project would directly compete with Metro and other vital public services. There is no magic fund.

Sarah Christensen, the executive director of the RTC, recently acknowledged the reality: “We would need to prioritize this project over many, if not all of our other transportation needs in the region in order for it to come to fruition.” That stark statement makes clear just how much the train project would crowd out other critical projects.

Weller also omits an important truth about how sales tax works: it’s regressive. The less you earn, the more of your income you pay. As has been seen with other train systems throughout the country, the train project would force working families — many of whom will never use the train — to subsidize a system more likely to benefit affluent commuters.

Weller claims the train project will operate at a lower cost than Metro. But when you look at cost per passenger-mile — a standard metric for transit efficiency — there’s no evidence the train project would do better. In fact, systems like this typically cost much more to run per rider. Metro already serves thousands of people across the county. The train project would be a single, limited line that needs a whole new system to operate. That’s not cheaper — it’s duplication. And it forces two transit systems to compete for the same limited pool of riders and funding, instead of improving what we already have. It would also require creating and funding a new rail agency years before the first train ever runs.

This isn’t about opposing transit. It’s about being honest about priorities. We can invest in equitable transportation — starting with better bus service, safer bike routes and affordable mobility options that serve the entire county. But pouring billions into a speculative rail project isn’t transit justice. It’s a costly distraction.

Jim Weller may be willing to gamble on a train that might exist in 2045. But for those of us who care about real equity, fiscal responsibility, and serving the people who need help today — it’s time to get off this train.

Will Mayall is a Live Oak resident and former board member of Santa Cruz County Greenway.