


WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to worsen in the coming months, but they still foresee two interest rate cuts by the end of this year, the same as they projected in March.
The Fed kept its key rate unchanged for the fourth straight meeting Wednesday, and said the economy is expanding at “a solid pace.” Changes to the Fed’s rate typically — though not always — influence borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business loans.
The central bank also released its latest quarterly projections for the economy and interest rates. It expects weaker growth, higher inflation and slightly higher unemployment by year’s end than it had forecast in March, before President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs April 2. Most of those duties were postponed April 9. The Fed also signaled it would cut rates just once in 2026, down from two projected in March.
Fed officials see inflation, according to its preferred measure, rising to 3% by year’s end, from 2.1% in April. It also projects the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5%, from 4.2% now. Growth is expected to slow to just 1.4% this year, down from 2.5% last year.
Despite the gloomier outlook, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have underscored that they are holding off from any changes to their key rate because of the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the tariffs and economic outlook.
After the Fed released its latest policy statement, Powell said, “Increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”
On Wednesday, Trump called Powell “stupid” and accused him of being “political” for not cutting rates.