JERUSALEM — Israelis vote Tuesday in their fourth parliamentary election in two years. Once again, the race boils down to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for the past 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the country’s successful coronavirus vaccine rollout and his diplomatic outreach to the Arab world. His challengers have highlighted his earlier missteps in combating the virus, his ongoing corruption trial and his reliance on divisive religious and ultranationalist allies.

Over the years, Netanyahu has developed a reputation as a political magician and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses set to take the stand against him next month, Netanyahu is hoping for another miracle that could deliver a friendlier parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who has caused two years of political paralysis by putting his political survival and legal troubles ahead of the country’s interests.

Opinion polls forecast a tight race, raising the possibility of continued deadlock and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu appears to hold a slight advantage because of the intricacies of Israel’s political system.

In Israel, people vote for parties, not individual candidates.

Netanyahu’s Likud is again poised to emerge as the largest individual party. But since no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority on its own, political alliances must be formed to create a governing coalition. If the opinion polls prove accurate, Netanyahu would have a clearer path to building a government than the array of rivals that have little in common beyond their animosity toward him.

Opponents have accused Netanyahu of bungling the management of the pandemic over the past year. A series of lockdowns hit the economy hard, thousands of businesses failed and unemployment remains in double digits. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies flouting lockdown rules and point to the country’s more than 6,000 COVID-19 deaths.

With the economy coming back to life, Netanyahu is hoping the growing sense of normalcy will make voters forget the difficulties of the past year. This may explain that while polls show a majority of Israelis want Netanyahu replaced, he also is seen as best-suited to be prime minister.

But opinion polls have also indicated that some 15% of voters remain undecided.

Analysts expect turnout to be lower than the 71% level of the most recent election a year ago, in part because of continued concerns about the coronavirus along with general voter fatigue. Israel is providing special accommodations, including separate booths and mobile ballot stations, to allow people who are sick or in quarantine to vote.

But more important than overall turnout will be voter participation in key sectors.

Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have highly motivated voters. Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the Arab “Joint List” bloc, are expected to stay home in larger numbers this time around. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower rates of participation. Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize.

In the previous three elections, Netanyahu boasted of his close alliance with then-President Donald Trump, posting massive billboards on highways and high-rises showing the men together. With Joe Biden now occupying the White House, Netanyahu has barely mentioned the new president, whose administration has given him a cool reception.