The year was 2010.

Donald Trump starred in Season 3 of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” And in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger was winding down his second and final term as governor.

Three days into 2011, the Hollywood celebrity left office, marking the last time a Republican held Sacramento’s top job.

Could that change next year?

Jumping into the gubernatorial race this week, conservative commentator Steve Hilton gave the GOP its second major candidate — alongside Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — signaling a heightened sense of opportunity for a party that hasn’t wielded significant power in the state Capitol since “Avatar” reigned at the box office.

Not that a GOP takeover is likely.

Only the most punch-drunk partisan would give Republicans as much as a 50-50 chance of succeeding Gavin Newsom. Kevin Spillane, a Republican strategist who’s not involved in the GOP contest, believes the party would “need a lot of breaks” to elect a governor in 2026. He put the odds at no better than 35% to 40% — though, as Spillane noted, that’s “still higher than we’ve had in a long time.”

What’s buoying Republican prospects? “It’s homelessness,” Spillane said. “It’s public safety. It’s affordability. It’s taxes. It’s gas prices. It’s energy policy. I mean, these are just bread-and-butter issues.”

If Kamala Harris decides to run, Spillane thinks that would only enhance the GOP’s chances of seizing the governorship.

“There’s obviously a lot of animosity on the Republican side toward her. She, along with Gavin Newsom, are sort of seen as symbols of California’s multiple policy failures.”

But Garry South, a Democratic strategist who twice helped elect Gray Davis governor, is highly skeptical.

“No chance,” he said of Hilton, Bianco or any other Republican assuming the governorship in January 2027. “Zilch. Zero.”

South pointed to the state’s political profile: Just 25% of registered voters are Republicans. Democrats make up 45% and most of those who are unaffiliated — just about another quarter of the electorate — tend to lean Democratic.

He conceded that Democrats running for governor aren’t benefiting from a whole lot of goodwill. After nearly a decade and a half of one-party rule in Sacramento, there’s no escaping responsibility for California’s deep-seated problems.

“There’s clearly unease about the homeless situation, which seems to be continually spiraling out of control. There’s concern about crime,” South said. “But [voters] don’t look at Republicans and see any potential solutions there.”

That said, stranger things have happened.

Matt Shupe is communications director for the California Republican Party, meaning his job is seeing that partisan hopes spring eternal. He said he doesn’t have to crane his neck too hard to envision a viable GOP path to the governorship.

While Republicans lag behind in voter registration, he noted that it’s not unusual for candidates to win 40% or more of the statewide vote. Given unhappiness with Sacramento’s status quo, Shupe suggested, it’s not impossible to see a Republican making up that last bit of ground and winning a majority.

“Things like gay marriage and abortion” — which Democrats used for years as a bludgeon against Republicans — “are enshrined in our state Constitution and aren’t going anywhere,” Shupe said. “And assuming a Republican was elected governor, they still have the checks and balance of a majority or super-majority Democratic Legislature.

With Trump back in the White House and the economy on the skids, Democrats will surely brush off their familiar playbook and seek to turn the governor’s race into a referendum on the unpopular president. Regardless, Shupe maintained those attacks will fall flat. The average California voter, he said, “is tired of this war on Trump. That’s not to say they’re all MAGA-hat-wearing Trump supporters. But they want the state government to focus on infrastructure, homelessness, the cost of living and all these things that affect people every single day in their pocketbooks.”

Mark Z. Barabak is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times.