Even before President Donald Trump started his trade wars, McDonald’s Corp. top brass knew this year would start sluggishly.

Prices are up for food, paper goods and labor, while many of the burger chain’s core customers are finding the menu unaffordable. It’s the same story for many American businesses, as quarterly financial reports will make obvious in the weeks ahead. CEO optimism has plunged since Trump’s tariff shocks, and consumer sentiment alarmingly has followed suit. A Bank of America survey shows that fund managers have slashed their holdings of U.S. stocks.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve declined to cut interest rates, leaving them at high levels to fight the inflationary effect of Trump’s self-defeating trade policies. The Fed also cut its forecast for economic growth.

We’d like to think Trump will learn from the bad vibes and market volatility. His broad tariffs are akin to punishing taxes on American consumers, and his arbitrary attacks on close allies undermine a free market that helps keep prices down. As we’ve said before, Trump needs to listen to Americans, including many who voted for him, and cancel his economic reality show before it sinks the strong-ish economy he inherited from President Joe Biden.

Here’s the good news: The White House still has plenty of latitude to avoid a “Trumpcession.” And while sentiment has taken a dive, many business leaders are keeping the faith that Trumpian policies will work out in the long run.

All Trump needs to do, contrary to his penchant for sowing chaos, is to settle down and follow through on the more realistic promises he made during his campaign. The rotten start to his second term will be forgiven in corner offices if the president can deliver the tax cuts and hands-off regulatory policies that many business leaders were counting on when they supported him despite reservations about his odious personal history.

While Trump’s unqualified Cabinet nominees got more attention, he also has tapped experienced executives and hands-off regulators for powerful roles, marking a U-turn from a Biden team viewed as actively hostile to business. The upshot could be a much better environment in Washington for everything from global banks and cryptocurrency vendors to Big Pharma and technology giants.

Consider the current capital rules for banks, which tie up a fortune that otherwise could be deployed for growth instead of compliance with layer on layer of bureaucracy.

In 15 years since the Dodd-Frank Act, the rules have just kept coming from the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Treasury Department and 50 state banking offices. Rationalizing those regulations could unleash hundreds of billions in investment dollars now shelved to meet redundant risk-management requirements.

Is Trump the man to do it? So far, no. But if he listens to the marketplace, maybe.

Similarly, the past decade has witnessed a boom in private investment that built companies of significant value. At the same time, heavy-handed regulation has raised the cost of initial public offerings and discouraged mergers and acquisitions, complicating exit strategies for investors.

Yet once again, Trump has made matters worse by sparking uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets, which discourages IPOs and dealmaking. Even with a new day dawning at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission and other agencies that were roadblocks during Biden’s era, the changes won’t matter unless market conditions settle down.

One group is listening: America’s competitors abroad. It is disturbing to see China emerge as a more reliable global trade partner than the U.S. At the same time, Europe is being galvanized into unified action that has eluded it, greatly accelerating its previously weak attempts at deregulation, market integration and targeted fiscal spending.

It’s time Trump stabilize the economy. The downside risks are rising. Let’s eliminate the threat of a “Trumpcession” before it’s too late.

The Chicago Tribune