President Trump says he’s “not joking” about possibly running for a third term. But the Constitution clearly forbids such a move. So what’s going on?

It’s hard to know what Trump is really thinking. But here is what he’s certainly not joking about: ruling as if all the guardrails designed to restrain presidential power, including the Constitution, do not exist.

The latest example of his drive for domination is an executive order requiring voters to prove their citizenship while curtailing their right to vote by mail. This is an invidious answer to an invisible problem. Voter fraud barely exists, and it is already a felony. But Trump is following the classic tyrant’s playbook: Create a fraudulent problem and use it to justify an extreme counterattack.

“The president’s executive order is an unlawful action that threatens to uproot our tried-and-tested election systems and silence potentially millions of Americans,” said Danielle Lang, senior director of voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, which has already moved to block Trump’s order in federal court. “It is simply not within the president’s authority to set election rules by executive decree, especially when they would restrict access to voting in this way.”

This is a proven strategy followed by many autocrats Trump admires, strongmen who have trashed legal obstacles to maintain their grip on power: Russia’s Vladimir Putin (20 years), Hungary’s Viktor Orban (15 years) and Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan (11 years).

“It’s worth considering why Trump continually praises dictators,” historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat wrote for CNN on the eve of the election. “Some of it is no doubt Trump airing his fantasies of the kind of authority he could exert as president. He praises Hitler, Chinese leader Xi, Russian President Putin and others because of their absolute power, not in spite of it.”

Indeed, Trump at times sees himself as a divinely ordained monarch, not just an elected leader. He often boasts about being chosen by God, after his narrow escape from an assassin’s bullet. He eagerly shared a fake magazine cover of himself wearing a golden crown and grinning broadly at the tagline, “LONG LIVE THE KING.” And he’s posted this on social media: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”

Over the years, Trump has talked frequently about running for a third term. His allies have usually dismissed it as a clever trolling trick, designed to irritate foes and generate attention, and that’s obviously part of his motivation now. A few words to NBC’s Kristen Welker and the whole political world went nuts.

There’s also the lame-duck problem that plagues all second-term presidents. As their power to reward friends and punish enemies diminishes, so does their leverage. If folks fear a third Trump term, that might slow the decline of his influence.

And remember: Trump is a reality TV star. One key to success in that format is maintaining suspense, and here’s the president playing his part to the hilt after the election: “I’ve raised a lot of money for the next race that I assume I can’t use for myself, but I’m not 100% sure because I don’t know. I think I’m not allowed to run again. I’m not sure. Am I allowed to run again?”

All good fun. Until it’s not. As this CNN headline put it: “Trump sounds dead serious about a third term, no matter what’s in the Constitution.” He told NBC that “there are methods” he could employ to defy the law, but he did not elaborate.

Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump confidant, was more explicit on NewsNation, saying: “I’m a firm believer that President Trump will run and win again in 2028.” When host Chris Cuomo asked for details, Bannon replied: “We’re working on it. I think we’ll have a couple of alternatives.”

It’s time to take Trump seriously, warns Susan Glasser, a New Yorker writer who has studied Putin’s rise to power in Russia. “Don’t underestimate Donald Trump’s willingness not only to socialize the unthinkable in American politics, but actually to act on it,” she told CNN. “What’s really remarkable here is the willingness to flout the law, to test the basic norms of settled governance.”

Altering the election law is only one of those tests. So are Trump’s calls to impeach judges and ice out law firms that dare to thwart him. We don’t know yet if Trump is serious. But if he does aspire to run again, this is exactly what he’d be doing: using his power to tear down the barriers that might stand in his way.

Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. Email stevecokie@gmail.com.