You have seen the blizzard of scary images — immigration agents taking parents away in front of their kids, masked officers raiding neighborhoods, men detained in remote centers — but here is the surprising fact behind the mayhem: Donald Trump has deported fewer people per month than Barack Obama did, and barely more than Joe Biden during a similar span last year, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement data obtained by NBC News.

Since February, his administration has deported 14,700 people per month on average, according to NBC News. That’s far below Obama’s peak in 2013, when he deported 36,000 per month. And it’s not even close to the Trump administration’s reported goal of deporting 1 million people in a year.

Trump’s deportation dragnet is less effective than those of his predecessors because it is chaotic, theatrical and detached from the systems that work. Rather than effectively coordinating with local law enforcement, following rules, laws and norms, or expanding and expediting legal processing, Trump has prioritized optics over outcomes. What his administration lacks in strategy, it tries to compensate for with spectacle — sweeping up schoolchildren, targeting families, broadcasting raids on social media.

Immigration was once his strongest issue politically. Today, it is fast becoming a vulnerability. According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Trump’s approval on immigration has dropped sharply, with 55% disapproving and only 40% approving. A recent Gallup poll showed that the number of Americans who view immigration as a good thing has risen from 64% in 2024 to 79% now, a record high. Even more telling is the erosion of support among independents, many of them suburban voters who had once been sympathetic to a tougher border stance but are now recoiling at scenes of cruelty and overreach.

Support for deporting all undocumented immigrants is below 40%. Support for a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented immigrants has climbed to nearly 80%. Most Americans back a path to citizenship for “dreamers.” In short, Trump has managed to move the country not to the right on immigration, but to the center and even left of center.

The public is rebelling against extremism in both directions. Under Biden, many Americans accurately perceived chaos and lawlessness at the border, prompting a backlash. Now, under Trump, they are reacting just as strongly to what appears to be a lawless and authoritarian approach — one that disregards legal precedents, court rulings and legislative prerogatives. The lesson is clear: Americans want immigration to be managed with competence and decency, not bombast or cruelty.

If the United States had a functioning political system, this would be the moment for comprehensive immigration reform. First, the asylum system must be totally overhauled. It cannot remain open-ended and unmanageable. There should be clear numerical caps and rules about where and how asylum can be claimed — preferably outside the United States, through a structured process. Second, those who have lived in the U.S. for years, paying taxes and raising families, should be given a path to legal status. Deporting them makes no economic or moral sense. And third, America needs to expand high-skilled immigration if it wants to remain at the cutting edge of technology and innovation.

This is the litmus test for Trump. Is he actually interested in solving America’s immigration problem? Or does he prefer it as a political cudgel? When he was out of office, he chose the latter — torpedoing a bipartisan Senate immigration deal that would have toughened border enforcement and reformed the asylum process. Now that he is back in power, he has another chance. Will he take it?

Democrats, too, face a crucial choice. The mistake many of them made during Trump’s first term was to define themselves primarily in symbolic opposition to his nasty rhetoric — promising not to enforce the laws and chanting to abolish ICE. That stance energized the base but alienated moderates; in fact, it alienated the country. Remember, this is the issue that has fueled Trump’s movement most since he came down that golden escalator in 2015, and it has helped bring him into the White House a second time.

If the Democrats go crazy left, the public will turn against them again. To earn back trust, Democrats should sit solidly in the center — advocating secure borders, strong law enforcement, humane treatment and realistic reforms. That’s good politics. More important, it is the right set of policies for the country.

Fareed Zakaria is a Washington Post columnist.