New booking data shows consumers are hesitating to commit to Western mountain locations for their summer vacations — a consequence of ever-changing economic and political dynamics and rising daily rates compared to this time last year.

The booking pace to mountain destinations across seven Western states — Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho — fell for its sixth consecutive month in May, officially reaching its longest downward streak for 17 participating destinations since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Occupancy rates in Colorado mountain destinations, however, have been hit much harder than the others so far into the season.

For May, occupancy in participating Colorado mountain destinations dropped a strong 15.1% compared to this time last year. The same is true across other markets, though not as excessively. Instead, occupancy dipped a scant 0.7% compared to May 2024, according to data from Inntopia’s DestiMetrics monthly market briefing.

Still, the lower booking pace during May marks a 180-degree switch from the positive year-over-year growth mountain resort destinations have enjoyed for the past several years.

“That flip has been inevitable given the sustained declines in booking pace over the past six months, and so was expected,” Tom Foley, senior vice president of Business Intelligence for Inntopia and author of the market briefing report, said. “We also know that if soft booking pace continues — and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t, especially when we’re comparing to what was an increasingly positive consumer sentiment last summer — then we’ll see occupancy declines deepen and revenue to move closer to flat, or even downward.”

The numbers are close enough to the flat line, however, that “there’s room for improvement with only slight changes to rate or consumer sentiment,” he said.Foley said proximity to major national parks and well-established lake destinations can dramatically impact how different states perform during the summertime, which makes it difficult for Colorado to compete with Yellowstone and Lake Tahoe. With the addition of the Trump administration’s cuts to national park services, these destinations’ influence on tourism could shrink compared to past years.

“Even national parks, once thought to be bulletproof, are facing challenges as they work to overcome funding and staff/resource changes. So while I think there are some states that bank on summer, and it’s pretty reliable for them, everyone is feeling some version of angst this summer,” he said. “And, specific to Colorado, we can’t discount that many of the highest occupancy days of the year in Colorado are during the summer season, not winter, even at major ski resorts.”

Rising average daily rates — a close representation of the average price guests pay for lodging — have simultaneously kept the region’s tourism revenue above water while deterring travelers who may be planning vacations on a budget. Destinations across Inntopia’s market saw average daily rates increase by 2% in May, with Colorado’s rates following closely with a moderate increase of 1.5%.

These increased daily rates have helped to offset any revenue losses for most lodging properties across the northwestern U.S.

However, the net result of Colorado’s steeper occupancy losses is negative revenue, down almost 1% compared to the industry’s gain of 2.4%.

“The most notable conclusion from this month’s data is the undeniable impact that rate is having on bookings,” Foley said in the report. “Consumers are more price-sensitive than they were during the peak inflation surges in the immediate post-pandemic period. We’re seeing a clear pattern that just about every time that year-over-year daily rates rise at all, the booking pace declines — and on the rare occasions that rates have dropped, those dates pick up bookings.”

Bookings for the full summer season — May through October — are on the downward trend compared to what was initially forecasted during the winter season, though there could still be time for those numbers to change.

“The financial and political turbulence of the past few months continues to have an impact on bookings — even with some good economic news and an uptick in consumer confidence during May,” Foley said in the report. “The Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial kick-off to the summer season, was pretty ‘so-so’ as expected, but the larger concern now is that the two busiest months of the summer, July and August, are clearly underperforming.”

Average daily rates at Colorado destinations for the full summer overperformed the rest of the industry, according to Foley. While rates at Colorado mountain destinations climbed 5.3% for bookings through October, all seven states combined saw an average rate increase of 3.7%.

Overall aggregated occupancy, however, went from a positive position at the end of April to being down 1.2% by May 31. For Colorado destinations, it’s down 5.9%. Booking pace for the summer season is down 7.1% across all seven states.

So far for the region, July occupancy is down 5.1%, August is down 0.9%, and September has slipped by 4.7%.

“July is critical,” Foley said. “July and August visitation make up 50% of the full summer season, and their revenue even more than that. If that month fails to fill in well, then we’ll reassess how we’re feeling about things.”

The drop in bookings is mostly coming from international travelers, with notable drops from visitors in Canada, Western Europe and Mexico sharing much of the responsibility. Meanwhile, domestic bookings saw an increase of 1.7% compared to this time last year.

Bookings from Canada across all seven Western states are down 55.5%, Western Europe is down 35.5%, and Mexico is down 5.4%. This is the first time in months that Inntopia has recorded a decline from Mexico, whose visitors make up roughly 27% of Colorado’s international visitors.

Canada and Mexico combined account for 46% of Colorado’s international visitation, with Mexico bringing in over 250,000 visitors, followed by Canada at 183,000 visitors, according to an April release from the governor’s office. The economic impact of international travel from these two countries in 2024 was over $265 million, which is why many tourism experts are closely monitoring Canada’s steep drop in visitation.

According to Foley’s report. The consumer confidence index rose to 98 points from the five-year low of 87.7 points recorded in April, with confidence improving across all income and age groups as well as political affiliations.

Consumer prices, however, increased by 0.1% in May and inflation rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, the first increase in the national inflation rate since January.

Colorado’s May unemployment rate of 4.8%, higher than the national rate of 4.2%, could also be a factor in the decreased travel from international and some domestic travelers. It can be easy for individuals to feel they have less disposable income when unemployment rises, which can lead to fears of economic uncertainty, reduced travel spending, shorter trips and a shift toward more budget-friendly options.

“There is some evidence that tariff costs are being passed to consumers, but drops in energy and some commodities like vehicles and apparel have helped offset some of those daily consumer costs,” Foley said in the report. “The good news for the travel industry is that thus far, consumers are paying appreciably less to get to their destinations this summer as gasoline prices and airfares are down significantly from last year at this time and are helping to offset the higher costs of lodging.”

Contrary to the popularity of luxury accommodations during the past several months, May saw a reversal in favor of budget properties. Economy properties priced up to $250 per night saw slightly increased rates, higher occupancy, and, in turn, higher revenue. Economy was the only category to record strengthening in either occupancy or revenues.

Meanwhile, moderately priced properties ($251 to $400 per night) decreased their rates slightly but did not improve their occupancy, resulting in softer revenues as of May 31, according to the report. Rates for the luxury category (over $400 per night) went up by 1.4%, though it once again resulted in a 3.2% drop in occupancy. This reversal in the trends recorded in last month’s tourism report points to an impulse from travelers to spend less during times of economic uncertainty.