Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China’s complicated relationship is marked by increasing tensions and threats of war or invasion which could upend global stability. The United States is key to preventing this, and we must continue our deterrence policy. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually return to Chinese control, whereas Taiwan seeks to assert its independence as a democratically governed nation. In recent years, China acted on its wish to annex Taiwan by increasing its military presence and sending military planes and ships toward and around the island almost daily. A statement from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office announced that China will “never commit to renouncing the use of force” regarding reunification. To preserve Taiwan’s freedom, a United States military presence is essential, as Taiwan’s foreign minister stated “strengthened alliances and evolving military force postures were critical to deterring China.” The United States has had a precedent of supporting Taiwan militarily. In 1979, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act which states, “The United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security … of the people of Taiwan.” This has been our relationship baseline ever since and is key to deterring China. Beyond our commitment to upholding Taiwanese sovereignty and human rights, the United States has a critical stake in the conflict for two reasons.

First, semiconductors. Although the United States and China’s GDP dwarfs that of Taiwan, it holds the key to this essential industry. Taiwan produces around 90% of the world’s supply of semiconductors, which are used ubiquitously in technology, like cars, AI, computers and cell phones. In the event of a Chinese blockade or invasion of the island, disruptions to semiconductor production could quickly lead to a global shortage of nearly every product that contains technology. In the short term, this would cripple the American technology industry, valued at almost $2 trillion and almost 10% of the national GDP, with millions of more jobs at risk. The United States cannot risk China monopolizing this industry.

Second, Indo-Pacific alliances. United States support to Taiwan has been built off our agreement to the Taiwan Relations Act. Rescinding military support would signal that we are not committed to our allies and will fold under Chinese pressure instead. We cannot turn tail on our allies now. Instead, we should focus on strengthening relationships with our allies. For example, India and the United States have immense potential to expand their economic partnership in clean energy, pharmaceuticals and defense sectors. Profits from new ventures such as this could result in upwards of $500 billion in growth. To unlock this, the United States must start by reaffirming our commitment to protecting our allies.

The United States cannot rely on soft power and diplomacy alone in the Indo-Pacific. We must maintain our military presence in the region, as it is the only tool we have that is successfully deterring China. Although China continues to conduct military posturing around Taiwan, it is key to remember that China has not invaded yet because they understand the massive implications of war with the United States. Without our support, Taiwan would be unable to defend itself in the event of an invasion. Our 40-year precedent of military support is not increasing tensions with China, as it long precedes recent upticks in tensions. Instead, China is trying to usurp the United States’ influence in the region, thus, a military presence is key.

The United States cannot lose sight of Taiwan in 2025. We must continue our military support to protect the valuable semiconductor industry from Chinese monopolization and reaffirm our commitment to our allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

Skye Williams lives in Lafayette.