Trump, the Nobel Peace Prize and World War III

Trump may have just pissed away his dream of getting a Nobel Peace Prize, something he desperately wants and seemingly viewed the Ukraine war as being ideal for achieving. It seems as though he has long planned on the U.S. handing Ukraine over to Putin, but he apparently needed to profit from that. So he needed to make it appear that he brokered the peace, not that the U.S. abandoned Ukraine. Then for the personal touch, he went a step further and seemingly extorted an agreement on mineral rights with a security promise that wasn’t worth the smoke it was written in. And finally, he wanted Zelensky to kiss his ring and thank him personally and publicly for all this. Zelensky refused to meekly submit to the embarrassing and staged spectacle, so Trump went ballistic.

Note that none of these theatrics would have had any impact on the war in Ukraine. The U.S. support of Ukraine and NATO was always going to disappear with Trump as president, Russia was going to continue to attack Ukraine’s civilian centers until Ukraine was completely defeated, and the impending confrontation between Eastern and Western European countries would continue to come to the fore. The only new losers here are Trump and U.S. international influence. Oh, and Trump’s lost Peace Prize.

As for World War III, with the U.S. turning isolationist there will certainly be a European war and there will likely be a Southeast Asia confrontation, but they’re not likely to expand into a worldwide ideological conflict that was the basis for both of the previous world wars. In Europe, until Russia recovers from its military losses and the NATO members develop a more capable military, any overt war will likely rely on drones attacking civilian infrastructure centers, meaning that the conflict, if it occurs, will be relatively localized along the NATO/Russia bloc border. In Asia, China will integrate Taiwan into itself without serious resistance from the U.S. or anyone else.

This has all been just a performative sideshow from the domestic dismantling of the U.S. Constitution. The Trump show is just starting. Welcome to the new norm, and enjoy the ride.

— Paul Atcheson, Longmont