In recent years, the Oscar winners have proved foregone conclusions, with the exception of one or two true surprises. However, Sunday night’s ceremony has the potential for some parity because of a late push by “Sinners” into the best picture and best actor races. Also, the supporting actor categories went different ways during awards season.

The best picture nominees gave audiences plenty of drama and thrills. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be no different.

Best picture

“Bugonia”

“F1”

“Frankenstein”

“Hamnet”

“Marty Supreme”

“One Battle After Another”

“The Secret Agent”

“Sentimental Value”

“Sinners”

“Train Dreams”

“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler’s vampire-horror blockbuster, leads the field with a record-breaking 16 Academy Award nominations. “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s generation-spanning epic about revolution, follows with 13. Both films are daring masterpieces worthy of the honor.

Charging in as the front-runner, “One Battle After Another” earned an impressive haul: Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Critics Choice, Golden Globe for best musical or comedy and BAFTA wins. The best indicator is the Producers Guild Award, whose victor went on to win best picture in 15 out of the last 18 years.

Just when it seemed like “One Battle After Another” had the race sewn up, “Sinners” flexed its muscle and won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards. But the award is not as reliable a bellwether as the PGA. Still, SAG winner “Parasite” defeated PGA winner “1917” to claim best picture in 2020. This shows “Sinners” has a path to victory.

However, the film’s lone major award win may not be enough to dethrone “One Battle After Another.” The political satire is masterfully crafted, directed, written and acted, and it has the hardware to back it up. Its sweeping story feels even more relevant now than when it was released in the fall.

“Sinners” could pull off an upset, but “One Battle After Another” is in prime position to win this battle.

Should (and will) win: “One Battle After Another”

— Rebecca Kivak

Best director

Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

“One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are the two best movies of 2025, and that starts with powerhouse directors Anderson and Coogler putting together the best work of their decorated careers. They also wrote the screenplays for their respective films.

Both executed their visions to perfection. Anderson beautifully blends humor, action and emotion in a film with a phenomenal ensemble. It takes its time, but keeps the viewers on the edge of their seats with thrilling sequences that prove brilliantly thought out and realized.

Coogler wows the audience with attention to detail and emotional depth. “Sinners” gets better with each rewatch, as Coogler gets the most out of his actors, executes the best scene of the year masterfully and blends genres seamlessly to deliver a powerful film that stuck with the viewer.

“One Battle After Another” holds a mirror up to society, while “Sinners” opens society’s eyes to a past it never learned or wanted to forget. They’re two impactful films, but “Sinners” has a little more depth, produces a few more awe-inspiring moments and resonates slightly more thanks to Coogler’s effort.

However, awards season went in Anderson’s favor, as he claimed BAFTA, Critics Choice, Directors Guild of America and Golden Globe awards. Best director went in lockstep with best picture the last three years and five of the last six Oscars — the only exception coming in 2022 when Jane Campion won best director for “The Power of the Dog” and “CODA” won best picture.

Should win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

— Joe BaressBest actor

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”

Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”

Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

What seemed like a sure bet turned into a two-man race between Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan.

Receiving his second-straight best actor nomination, Chalamet emerged as the front-runner after winning the Critics Choice and Golden Globe. But in a stunning twist, the actor’s momentum stalled. After losing the BAFTA, Chalamet lost the Actor Award to Jordan. Actors form the Academy’s biggest voting bloc, so the latter indicates support for Jordan.

Chalamet also received backlash for comments he made about ballet and opera. His remarks went viral just as Oscar voting ended.

As a smooth-talking shyster with flashes of vulnerability, Chalamet gives one of his best performances. Jordan delivers a master class in a dual role — inhabiting two different characters — and deserves the overdue recognition.

Jordan’s Actor Award may not be enough to seal the deal. Chalamet would know. Last year, the actor won the award for “A Complete Unknown,” but lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist.” Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura could also swoop in as a dark horse.

It comes down to momentum. Chalamet lost it, and Jordan has it.

Should (and will) win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Best actress

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”

Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”

Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Jessie Buckley claimed the Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama), BAFTA and Actor awards, and is the heavy favorite entering Sunday night’s ceremony. This is one of the locks of the night and rightfully so. Buckley earned her first Oscar nomination for her supporting performance in 2021’s “The Lost Daughter.” In “Hamnet,” she takes center stage, showing her phenomenal range from subtle to loud, going through every emotion. She can wail in heartache, and give a subtle smile out of the side of her mouth. She’s believable in it all, forming quick chemistry with several characters that elevates the film’s powerful ending.

Buckley’s opponents also gave stellar performances. Emma Stone shines again in her collaboration with director Yorgos Lanthimos. The five-time Academy Award acting nominee and two-time winner makes great performances look effortless. Renate Reinsve gives an emotionally powerful performance as her character struggles with mental health. Rose Byrne thrives in a raw performance unlike any other in her career. Kate Hudson impresses in a versatile role, where she sang and expressed several emotions as her character goes through a whirlwind.

Still, no one will stop Buckley from securing her first Oscar.

Should (and will) win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Best supporting actress

Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”

Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”

Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

This category is wide open. Three actresses split four major awards: Amy Madigan won the Critics Choice and Actor Award, Teyana Taylor claimed the Golden Globe and Wunmi Mosaku took home the BAFTA.

The winds are blowing in Madigan’s direction. In a transformative turn, the veteran actress switches from bumbling to menacing on a dime. Madigan’s nomination comes 40 years after her first Oscar nod, and Hollywood loves a good comeback story. However, she’s the sole nomination for “Weapons,” which may be hard to overcome.

A force of nature, Taylor radiates passion in her performance. Even when she’s not onscreen, her character’s shadow looms large over the film. In a more grounded portrayal, Mosaku excels at being cool-headed, intuitive and sharp. She picked up momentum from her BAFTA win and could emerge as a spoiler.

But Madigan’s Actor Award victory gives her the edge. It’s another weapon in her arsenal to win her first Academy Award.

Should win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Will win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

Best supporting actor

Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”

Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”

Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Jacob Elordi earned the Critics Choice Award on Jan. 4, and Stellan Skarsgård claimed the Golden Globe on Jan. 11.

However, Sean Penn picked up the BAFTA and Actor awards Feb. 22 and March 1, respectively, and enters Oscar night as the front-runner. Skarsgård is his toughest competition, but he wasn’t nominated for an Actor Award.

Penn was great as always, chewing up the scenery with his Vince McMahon-like walk and trying to hide his vulnerability through his overcompensating masculinity. However, the other four performers in this category made a greater impact, including Penn’s co-star Bencio Del Toro.

After his fast start at the Critics Choice Awards, Elordi surprisingly fell behind in the race. He produced the best supporting performance, showing incredible range, emotional depth, character development, nonverbal acting and physicality.

Skarsgård impressed with a career-defining performance. Much like Elordi, Skarsgård showed his emotions through body language and facial expressions, doing so much with only his eyes.

Lindo makes the most of his time on screen with a moving monologue, great physical acting through his music and some humor.

This is a classic over-the-top, in-your-face performance versus subtle acting. They all impressed, but it’s just a matter of preference. This year, the subtle choices are better, but the awards voters recently disagree.

Should win: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”

Will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Best original screenplay

Robert Kaplow, “Blue Moon”

Jafar Panahi with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, “It Was Just an Accident”

Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”

Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

After picking up Critics Choice, BAFTA and Writers Guild awards, “Sinners” is a near-lock to win.

Ryan Coogler’s excellent screenplay examines the cultural appropriation of Black music and art through a horror lens. Bleeding genres, “Sinners” blends rich storytelling and compelling characters with social commentary. The shrewd script takes bold risks that pay off.

The category contains strong contenders. “Marty Supreme” spins a suspenseful misadventure. “Sentimental Value” explores finding catharsis through art. “Blue Moon” wistfully looks at hopes and regrets. However, none has posed a formidable challenge to “Sinners.”

A win here could also allow “Sinners” to sink its teeth into the best picture prize. The path to the coveted honor typically goes through the screenplay categories.

Should (and will) win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

Best adapted screenplay

Will Tracy, “Bugonia”

Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”

Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, “Hamnet”

Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, “Train Dreams”

Paul Thomas Anderson and “One Battle After Another” also should easily lock up this award, after earning the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Writers Guild of America awards. It’s a smart script that keeps a great pace and blends drama, humor and thrills without taking the audience out of the movie. The screenplay awards are usually part of the path to best picture: 10 of the last 13 best picture winners also earned one of the screenplay awards.

The “Hamnet” and “Train Dreams” scripts are beautiful and heartbreaking, each producing devastating moments and touching triumphs over grief. “Frankenstein” adapts a well-known story and gives audiences another emotional journey. Will Tracy, writer of 2022’s “The Menu,” creates another bizarre and riveting script with strong dialogue that balances humor and drama with its social commentary in “Bugonia.”

However, “One Battle After Another” seems headed for a showdown with “Sinners” for best picture and this is an award it must pick up along the way.

Should (and will) win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Animated feature

“Arco”

“Elio”

“KPop Demon Hunters”

“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”

“Zootopia 2”

The undisputed favorite, “KPop Demon Hunters” commands the spotlight. Netflix’s viral sensation about a female Korean pop group who battles demons is the streamer’s most-watched original film.

The vibrant cartoon features colorful animation, independent heroines and a moving story of self-acceptance, set to an infectious soundtrack that became a worldwide smash. The sing-along version is the first Netflix film to top the domestic box office.

“KPop Demon Hunters” collected the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. Its closest competition is “Zootopia 2.” The Disney sequel won the BAFTA, but “KPop Demon Hunters” was ineligible for the category.

“Zootopia 2” — which made history as Hollywood’s highest-grossing animated film — boasts beautifully rendered animation and clever social commentary. However, it hasn’t become the cultural phenomenon “KPop Demon Hunters” has.

Expect “KPop Demon Hunters” to slay once more and bring home the Oscar.

Should (and will) win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Original score

Jerskin Fendrix, “Bugonia”

Alexandre Desplat, “Frankenstein”

Max Richter, “Hamnet”

Jonny Greenwood, “One Battle After Another”

Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners”

While “Sinners” picked up momentum in the best picture and best actor categories after winning big at the Actor Awards two weeks ago, this category has been the film’s lock of awards season. Ludwig Göransson’s score has levels to it, teleporting the audience to the 1930s. The chilling and emotional score serves as a perfect complement to a riveting and powerful story. As the film evolves from daylight preparations to the nighttime horrors, the score seamlessly transforms with it. It claimed BAFTA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards and added a Grammy for best score soundtrack for visual media.

Jonny Greenwood’s “One Battle After Another” score keeps the tension high in a similar way to Hans Zimmer’s ticking clock used in “Dunkirk” in 2017. Jerskin Fendrix’s uneasy score for “Bugonia” fits the bizarre nature of the film. Alexandre Desplat always perfectly captures the mood and blends into the scene and that continues with “Frankenstein.” Max Richter creates a gorgeous and emotional score for “Hamnet.” Unfortunately, the best musical piece is “On the Nature of Daylight,” which has been used several times in film and TV. It’s the perfect piece to use in the phenomenal last scene, but it’s not new.

Great scores as always in this category, but “Sinners” is a step above.

Should (and will) win: Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners”

Original song

“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”

“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”

“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”

“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”

“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”

Everything is looking up, up, up for “Golden.” The monster hit, which topped the Billboard Hot 100, is shining as the front-runner. Catchy and upbeat, the empowering anthem features the singing voices of EJAE, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami as the animated film’s K-pop girl group HUNTR/X.

“Golden” staked out its awards success early, winning the Critics Choice and Golden Globe. It also made history by becoming the first K-pop song to win a Grammy, taking home the award for best song written for visual media. If “Golden” wins the Academy Award, it would mark another K-pop first.

Featuring Miles Caton’s stirring vocals, the blues ballad “I Lied to You” accompanied one of the best film scenes of 2025. But nothing has stopped “Golden.”

The song is having its moment, and it’ll stay “Golden.”

Should (and will) win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”

Casting

Nina Gold, “Hamnet”

Jennifer Venditti, “Marty Supreme”

Cassandra Kulukundis, “One Battle After Another”

Gabriel Domingues, “The Secret Agent”

Francine Maisler, “Sinners”

The Academy introduces this new category at Sunday night’s ceremony. This isn’t necessarily the best cast on talent alone. It more so honors the casting director’s work in finding the best actors for the roles to elevate the film.

The cast from top to bottom of all these films is incredible. Each movie had veteran actors, and more impressively young actors or actors making their feature film debuts, such as Chase Infiniti in “One Battle After Another,” Jacobi Jupe in “Hamnet” and Tyler the Creator in “Marty Supreme.” All were incredible finds and proved standouts in their respective films.

It’s tough to beat Francine Maisler’s casting of “Sinners,” which boasts an absurd roster that includes Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku, Delroy Lindo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jack O’Connell, Jayme Lawson and phenomenal character actor Omar Benson Miller. The most impressive casting was Miles Caton, who made his feature film debut and left audiences in awe with his guitar playing and singing — especially during the best sequence of the year. He’ll give a great performance, as well, at the ceremony and potentially usher in a big evening for “Sinners.”

Should (and will) win: Francine Maisler, “Sinners”