


We hear it every four years, those woeful cries from citizens and voters who repeatedly say things such as:
“This is the most important election of our lives. The future of our country is at stake. He (or she) will be the worst president in American history.”
This year’s presidential race seemed a little quieter than usual — that is until President Joe Biden faltered at a debate; former President Donald Trump was shot — shot — in the middle of a speech; Biden pulled out of the presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris then entered the race.
Now we are just 93 days from Election Day, Nov. 5. People have been volunteering for months as they try to advance their favorite candidates. So much to do and so little time!
I call upon all election stakeholders — voters, candidates and policymakers — to get involved with the 2024 electoral vote process and work toward a more just, sustainable and peaceful world.
Yes, the stakes have never been higher — with rapid climate change, global health crises, technological disruptions, geopolitical tensions and more urgent problems.
The “Swing States” — also called the “Battleground States” — will be vital in this election and both parties know how to manipulate voter behavior.
The more we learn about a state’s voting habits, the easier it gets to set up a winning strategy and capitalize on the new realities about its’ Democratic and Republican demographics: the size of populations; their composition (e.g., ethnic group, age); and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths) and migration.
The presidential election winner is the one who can garner the needed 270 electoral votes (out of 538), not the candidate who gets the most popular votes.
Electoral votes are allocated to all 50 states based on the current Census. Every state is allocated a number of votes equal to the number of senators (two votes each) and U.S. congressmen (one each). Thus, Colorado has 10 electoral college votes in 2024.
Two recent elections underscore the importance of winning the Electoral College’s 270 votes.
The official vote tally in 2000 was George W. Bush received 47.9% of the popular vote total while Al Gore received over 48.4% but still lost the election (Bush received 271 electoral votes). Again in 2016, Donald Trump received 45.9% of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48%. (Trump won 306 electoral votes).
Based on historical voting patterns, demographic shifts and recent polling data, several states are poised to be the primary battlegrounds in 2024. It’s not enough that these states are identified. That’s because it comes down to the voting behavior of specific counties within those states.
Here’s a 30,000-foot overview of the current swing states according to many experts. They include, in order of voting for Democrats: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada. Within these states, vote totals from just a few counties will determine the number of electoral votes awarded to each candidate.
The following are some state election findings to help decide which party is more likely to win most or all of the state’s electoral college votes.
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes make the Keystone State desirable to the Democratic stronghold needed for the party’s success in Philadelphia County. Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh) also leans Democratic, but not as heavily as Philadelphia, and thus needs a heavy turnout to win the vote.
Michigan has 16 electoral votes. Bucks, Chester and Montgomery counties have risen in importance. Oakland County has swung between parties in recent elections, trending Democratic.
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, enough to gain intense political attention. Milwaukee County is the largest in the state and has a Democratic base, but it also needs a large turnout. Waukesha has been a GOP stronghold but trends see a possible shift.
Arizona has 11 electoral votes and has become more competitive in recent years. Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, encompasses Phoenix and its suburbs. It’s the state’s largest county. Pima County, home to Tucson, leans Democratic.
Georgia is a new swing state with 16 electoral votes after its push in the 2020 election. Fulton County is home to Atlanta and is a Democratic stronghold. Gwinnett and Cobb counties have had dramatic shifts favoring the Democratic party.
North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes give it clout. Wake County, home to Raleigh, has trended Democratic thanks to a growing urban and suburban population. Mecklenburg County surrounds Charlotte and is another Democratic stronghold.
Florida has 29 electoral votes and a diverse electorate which makes it a battleground state. Miami-Dade County is the largest county in Florida and has a strong Democratic base, but with large Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American populations, it can move results. Broward and Palm Beach counties are additional Democratic battlegrounds.
Nevada has six electoral votes at stake, with rapidly changing demographics. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, is a Democratic stronghold but needs a high voter turnout.
Both parties’ candidates will need to have laser-focused efforts, with their time and money, not just in the swing states themselves but also in specific counties within those states.
My advice to all Coloradans is to spend your time, efforts and money targeting precise precincts, within certain counties in the battleground states! If not, your efforts may be futile since you will only be preaching to the choir.
Colorado’s current 64 counties voting demographics will most likely ensure that all 10 electoral votes will go to the Democratic presidential candidate. Both parties would be wise to spend their efforts and money on down-ballot candidates and issues.
Presidential elections are not about who is the most popular. The road to the Oval Office is a race to winning the magic number of 270 electoral votes, which runs through the battleground states.
Jim Martin ran state-wide for the University of Colorado Board of Regents twice. He can be reached at jimmartinesq@gmail.com.