Parker Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Gabriel Broncos 20, Chiefs 17 Maybe it’ll end up being smooth sailing for Denver. The status as a big home favorite will make for a festive Week 18 and a cathartic end to the playoff drought. But it’s hard to imagine Kansas City, the longtime divisional big brother, rolling over and letting it happen that easily. Even with Patrick Mahomes in a ball cap. Even with other key players only watching. Coach Andy Reid and DC Steve Spagnuolo don’t have to take the week off. Still, Denver makes good on chance No. 3 and punches its ticket.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos Ryan 26, Chiefs 17 Third time’s McFadden the charm, right? Denver has shown it can beat the Chiefs. A blocked field goal attempt at Arrowhead took away the Broncos’ chance of pulling their biggest upset of the season. On Sunday, however, the Broncos will be playing against a bunch of the Chiefs’ backups. The game will be closer than expected, but the Broncos should take care of business in front of their home crowd. If not, they never deserved to be in the playoffs to begin with.

Troy Troy Renck, columnist: Renck Broncos 22, Chiefs 19 The K.C. bench would like nothing more than to send the Broncos to the beach. But without Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs are not upsetting the Broncos. Sean Payton will find himself in rhythm with the run game — meaning Bo Nix is a big part of it on RPOs — as the Broncos advance to the playoffs with a white-knuckle win.

Matt Matt Schubert, Schubert sports editor: Broncos 25, Chiefs 14 As much as Kansas City might like to spoil the Broncos’ parade to the playoffs, every decision its coaching staff has made leading into this one indicates just how little they actually care. It’s hard to beat a team with that sort of posture, especially one as motivated as the Broncos playing in front of a frothing-at-the-mouth home crowd. The postseason drought ends Sunday, with a trip to sunny Buffalo a fitting reward after the debacle that was the last two weeks.