Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates Thursday, their second reduction of 2024 and the latest sign that policymakers believe that inflation is finally coming under control.
The Fed’s move comes just days after Americans elected Donald Trump as their next president, and at a moment when the U.S. economy stands on the brink of change.
Growth had already been stronger than many economists had expected. And now, the policies Trump pledged from the campaign trail could shake up the economy and risk further inflation — though it is unclear which ones will come to fruition.
Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, suggested during a news conference Thursday afternoon that officials would be watching economic data as they weighed whether to make a final rate cut of 2024 at their next meeting in December.
He also emphasized — repeatedly — that the Fed’s immediate path would not be affected by Trump’s win and policy plans.
“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell said, adding that it was impossible at such an “early stage” to model what the policies would be or what they would mean for the economy. “We don’t guess, we don’t speculate, and we don’t assume.”
Powell also said he would not step down in the event Trump asked him. When a journalist asked him Thursday if the president has the power to fire or demote him, the Fed chair answered, “Not permitted under the law.”
Recent data has left the Fed “feeling good about economic activity,” Powell said, adding that “by December, we’ll have more data.”
A spate of economic data points over the last few weeks has suggested that the Fed need not rush. The jobless rate has stabilized, and consumer spending has been surprisingly strong, so the economy does not appear to be anywhere near the precipice of a painful crash.
“As we move ahead, we are prepared to adjust our assessments of the appropriate pace and destination” of interest rate moves, Powell said.
But in the longer term, Trump’s election could complicate the Fed’s policy path.
Economists widely think that the big tariff increases Trump proposed while campaigning — which could include across-the-board levies on all trading partners, and tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods — could lift prices.
And while trade conflicts did not lead to out-of-control inflation under Trump’s first presidency, what he is proposing this time is more extensive. Tariffs would also come at a time when inflation has already been high. And they could come in conjunction with other White House policies, like tax cuts, that have the potential to add renewed fuel to price increases.