NEW HOPE, Pa. >> Armed with a clipboard and campaign literature, Liz Minnella strolled through a neighborhood in New Hope, Pennsylvania, optimistic that by the end of her day of door-knocking, the small town would live up to its name for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.
There wasn’t a political yard sign in sight, which Minnella, who had only recently become a Democratic activist, took to mean that she might find some persuadable voters. When a blonde woman in a Villanova sweatshirt answered one door with a broad smile, Minnella, a Villanova graduate, thought aloud, “This is my lady.”
The woman, a 52-year-old Republican, was eager to talk, even though Minnella’s voter list had highlighted her daughter, an independent. Minnella tried to steer the conversation toward reproductive rights, but it eventually circled back to the woman’s fears that migrants would bring violent crime to her wealthy Philadelphia suburb. The woman thanked Minnella for the “civil conversation,” but her mind was unchanged; she was voting for former President Donald Trump.
The episode reflected the obstacles that white women who support Harris are confronting as they try to persuade their ideologically diverse counterparts to join her cause, an effort that could potentially decide the election.
While much attention has focused on how Harris’ chances could be imperiled by groups like Black men — the second-most loyal Democratic voters after Black women — pollsters and strategists say the race is more likely to come down to White women.
They are the country’s largest voting demographic, making up about 30% of the electorate, and they consistently turn out at very high rates. They tend to swing in larger numbers toward the Republican in presidential elections — including in the last two contests for Trump.
In the 2016 election, 47% of white women voted for Trump, compared with 45% for Hillary Clinton. Even more white women, 53%, favored Trump in 2020, versus 46% for Joe Biden.
‘An opportunity to vindicate ourselves’
After Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, identity groups like Black men and “White Dudes” raced to Zoom to rally around her, following the lead of more than 40,000 Black women who raised $1.6 million for her campaign within hours.
Among the largest video calls was “White Women Answer the Call,” which drew roughly 200,000 participants and raised nearly $11 million. An organizer of the call, Shannon Watts, the founder of the gun safety group Moms Demand Action, called it more of a “reckoning than a rally.”
She said she had consulted with Black, female organizers to shape her message: that white women, despite their privilege, needed to share the burden of fighting for democracy, as Black women had done for decades.
“White women, in particular, thought it was just enough to vote for Hillary Clinton, and there were a lot of regrets,” Watts said. “We have an opportunity to vindicate ourselves, and to elect a candidate that has not only our self-interest, but the self-interest of all women.”
Clinton herself has weighed in. In a September interview, she discussed the “double standard” that Harris had been held to by people “grappling with the idea” of a female president.
“This is particularly true, let’s just say it and underline it,” Clinton said, “about white women.”
White female support for Trump in previous elections broke down largely along educational lines, as he captured a majority of those without a college degree.
Pollsters and strategists say that is likely to bear out again this year — but that other factors could also be at play.
Harris has seen a groundswell of support from younger white women who are motivated to defend reproductive rights. Her campaign is also angling for white women without a college degree, who tend to lean Republican for economic reasons but are seen as more persuadable because of Harris’ focus on the so-called care economy, policies aimed at helping parents and other caregivers. And the number of unmarried women has continued to rise, potentially diluting what some pollsters say is a significant influence — men — in how some women vote.
Celinda Lake, a longtime pollster and Democratic strategist, aid Harris did not have to win over all of them, just enough to offset losses among White men.
“Win women more than you lose men,” she said. “That’s how Democrats win.”
Fierce fight for White women
Harris’ campaign has made an aggressive push for suburban, predominantly White women, especially moderate and conservative ones who have grown weary of Trump.
Jackie Payne, the executive director of Galvanize Action, a group focused on moderate female voters that formed after the 2016 election, said her organization had been surveying 6,000 moderate white women in 10 politically competitive states since June. Its most recent findings, from September, showed more moving toward Harris.
The economy was the top issue, followed by preserving democracy, immigration and reproductive freedom.
Payne suggested that many white women were leaning toward the candidate who aligned with their broad values — such as protection and patriotism.
“Trust is really important to moderate White women,” she said.