NEW DELHI — Indian officials spent six months in agony after President Donald Trump decided last summer to punish the country for buying crude oil from Russia, as they struggled to negotiate around his demand. Trump exerted pressure by placing sanctions on some Indian refiners and imposing a punishing 50% tariff on Indian goods to cut into revenue for what he called Moscow’s “war machine.”
On Thursday, Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said in a social media post that the Trump administration would grant India a limited, 30-day waiver to buy sanctioned Russian oil stranded at sea to keep oil “flowing into the global market.”
In joining Israel to launch a war against Iran, Trump made it nearly impossible for India to get oil from its alternative suppliers, which are mostly in the Persian Gulf. Supplies from the region were cut off by the fighting, which has escalated since it began Saturday. That leaves India with few options to feed its growing economy’s need for fuel, 90% of it imported. Russia looks like the obvious solution.
Sumit Ritolia, a research analyst at Kpler, which tracks international shipping, had anticipated the reversal and noted that India had not yet quit its Russian supply anyway. It takes nearly a month for tankers loaded in Russia to reach Indian ports; cargoes loaded before the trade deal was announced were still being delivered.
On Friday, Ritolia wrote that “the waiver effectively acts as a green signal.” Russia doesn’t have enough oil to fully offset the supply stranded in the gulf, but it now has every reason to keep pumping, and should be able to charge higher prices, too.
Rajeev Lala, a director at S&P Global Energy who follows India’s state-owned oil companies, said India’s recent experience buying and refining large quantities of seaborne crude from Russia proved that it could do without buying very much from the gulf. It is well positioned to pick up where it left off when, in recent months, it started tapering its Russian purchases.
“India is better placed to restart the Russia supply chain, whereas others will need to work harder — if gulf supplies are to stay shut for long,” Lala said.
India’s refineries are already set up to process Russian supplies, and its shipping and insurance agents have their Russian contacts at the ready. It could ramp up imports of Russian oil.
There are not many other places for India to turn for oil right now. Its main suppliers used to be Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait and Oman were expected to make up much of the balance.


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