Dear Mr. Bradshaw: My daughter is a junior in high school. She is a top student and is in the process of choosing colleges to apply to in the fall of next year.

She has not yet chosen a specific major, but her academic interests are in the business and economics area.

Is there a rule of thumb when it comes to the number of applications one should submit? Her academic record should qualify her for an Ivy League school or other top university.

Her guidance counselor recommends applying to at least five schools, with two as backups. What do you suggest?

Dear Parent:If you are interested in top colleges in the Ivy League or schools like MIT, Stanford, California-Berkeley, Notre Dame, Washington University-St. Louis, or Wharton-Penn, I recommend applying to at least 10 or 12, plus two backup schools.

Prior to the COVID-19 crisis the number of applications for colleges across the spectrum was rising each year. We have no good handle on the 2019-2020 admissions and retention numbers because the pandemic drove many students to make last-minute changes in their plans for financial concerns.

Recent enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center indicates that undergraduate attendance is trending down by 4.4%. An article in The Chronicle of Higher Education said that national freshman enrollment is down 13%. “The new data, which reflect enrollment as of Oct. 22, are based on 13.6 million students at 76% of the nearly 3,600 institutions reporting to the organization.”

College finances, being what they already are thanks to the pandemic, will be worsened by the reported downturn in the number of international students applying (and paying full tuition). These students were responsible for creating the largest application pool ever, with each year more competitive than the previous one. It remains to be seen what the international student downturn will mean for your daughter’s admissions chances.

That said, I still think that it is still only prudent to apply to at least 10 or 12 schools to ensure your acceptance — get the percentages working in your favor. Although in recent years colleges have been bombarded with more applications than they can accept for admittance, many applicants aren’t remotely qualified for the schools to which they apply. Critics say colleges are partly to blame. Many schools tout their numbers as a measure of popularity and, indirectly, academic quality.

The more applications they receive, the more they can reject — with the intention of driving up their selectivity ratings. Others say the uncertainty of the admissions process has fueled the spike in college applications. Students hear about classmates with near-perfect transcripts and test scores being turned down by top colleges.

It is hard to know what the higher-education enrollment situation will be in the fall of 2021. Once your daughter starts filling out applications, she will have to juggle deadlines for the schools that she applies to, SAT testing dates, homework and extracurricular activities.

The Common Application, which is accepted by more than 900 schools, opens Aug. 1 of each year. Next summer is an excellent time to start on her applications. While applications are based on a school’s requirements, most experts say that it can take at least six weeks to gather all of the information and materials needed for the process.

The Common App alone requires several short answer essays, a personal essay (250-650 words), and an optional additional information essay (250-650 words). Keep in mind that each essay is scored. They become real tiebreakers at top colleges. If you apply to 10 colleges using the Common Application Supplemental Application that could add as many as four essays for each college, bringing the total to 43. Clearly, students and parents need to devise a time-management plan; otherwise, the application process can get out of hand quickly.

Gerald Bradshaw is an international college admissions consultant with Bradshaw College Consulting in Crown Point.