The Boulder Valley school board at a Tuesday study session took a closer look at student numbers — including U.S. Census data, birth rates and open enrollment statistics — as the district grapples with declining enrollment.

The board also agreed to move forward with a policy change to open enrollment that would give those who live outside the school district, but commute to work at Boulder Valley businesses, an edge when open enrolling over other families who live outside the district. In-district families would continue to get first priority.

“It’s an opportunity because we do have room for them to bring their children with them,” Superintendent Rob Anderson said, adding an estimated 70,000 people commute to work daily in Boulder.

Along with adding a new preference, school board members asked for a better open enrollment user experience, including providing data so families could better understand their chances of acceptance at different schools and grade levels.

“We need to have a set of decision making tools for parents,” Anderson said.

On the enrollment side, numbers for this school year are coming in higher than projected, including in kindergarten — where the district has seen some of its largest declines in recent years. The official enrollment count, which determines state funding, takes place in October.Still, district officials are continuing to predict a slow but steady decline.

Projections show K-12 enrollment shrinking from last school year’s 27,273 students to 25,587 students in five years. At the school level, lower enrollment generally means fewer resources, including part-time “specials” teachers and counselors at elementary schools and fewer electives at secondary schools. Mixed-grade classrooms also are more likely, while there can be less flexibility to group students based on academic needs.

Census data also shows a declining population of children under 10 years old from 2010 to 2020 in the school district, as well as an aging population. If most of those who are 60 and older decide to “age in place,” the result will be more limited housing turnover and fewer opportunities for families to move in.

To help address enrollment challenges, the district created a Long Range Advisory Committee that has made several recommendations around school attendance area boundaries and open enrollment policies. The group also developed a community engagement process for elementary schools with low enrollment and plans to concentrate on middle schools this school year.

The elementary process is triggered when enrollment declines below 50% capacity, the school has one-and-a-half classes or fewer per grade level, and the school is projected to continue at that level for at least five years. Heatherwood Elementary, located in Gunbarrel north of Boulder, is the first Boulder Valley school to reach a small enough size to trigger the process. Preliminary enrollment numbers show 233 students this year.

Another six elementary schools are in a low enrollment advisory phase: Coal Creek, Community Montessori, Eldorado, Flatirons, Kohl and Mesa. Those schools have enrollment at or below 60% of capacity and two classes or fewer per grade level.

Not included in the small school enrollment process are the district’s mountain elementary schools, Gold Hill, Jamestown and Nederland. The committee suggested treating those schools differently because of their geographic challenges. Gold Hill is the smallest of the three schools, enrolling 10 students this year based on preliminary enrollment counts. Jamestown’s enrollment is at 17 students, while Nederland Elementary enrolls about 170 students.

The school board is expected to hear recommendations on possible program changes to increase attendance at Heatherwood in October. The next report on school enrollment trends is scheduled in February.

Looking at districtwide opportunities to boost enrollment, district officials shared that about 85% of the K-12 students who reside in the school district are enrolled in district schools. The other 15% are in private schools, are homeschooled or open enroll outside of the school district. Altogether, it’s estimated 29,089 K-12 children reside in the district.

In a survey of preschool through 12th grade parents living in the school district, those who aren’t enrolled were asked about their reasons. Of those who responded, 68% indicated they might consider Boulder Valley in the future, 23% responded that they wouldn’t consider the district and 9% were unsure.

Of those who wouldn’t consider the district, the main reasons were disagreement with the district’s ideology and curriculum; concerns over school size, safety or culture; and seeking a different program for their child’s specific needs.

While there are opportunities to bring students back to the school district, Anderson said, some parents simply don’t believe in the district’s collective values and are unlikely to reconsider their choices.

“We are who we are, we believe what we believe,” he said. “I don’t know that’s a barrier we will ever be able to overcome.”

Open enrollment represents another opportunity to increase enrollment, district officials said. Because enrollment is declining, few schools now have open enrollment wait lists, with most students getting into their first choice school.

Boulder Valley overall sees more students open enroll in from other school districts than open enroll out. The highest net gain was from Adams 12 with 1,052 students. The net gain from the Jefferson County School District was 139, while the net gain from St. Vrain Valley was 118.

New open enrollment school registrations show 869 out-of-district students registered at Boulder Valley schools in 2023, as did 863 students this school year. Because the funding follows the students, the out-of-district students bring additional revenue.