The head of the European Central Bank said inflation has become more unpredictable due to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and that policymakers need to take the possibility of such extreme scenarios into account and communicate them to the public as well.

“The world ahead is more uncertain, and that uncertainty is likely to make inflation more volatile,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said Monday in a speech opening the central bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. “It’s pretty basic but that’s the reality.”

One reason, she said, was that increasingly regular supply disruptions were leading companies to change their prices more frequently, a habit that goes beyond the recent burst of inflation in the U.S. and Europe and “reflects a structural shift in how firms operate under conditions of permanently higher uncertainty.”

The bank’s assessment of the economy needs to rely on taking extreme possible scenarios into account as well as the more likely baseline predictions, and it should let the public in on those possible outcomes as well, she said. Lagarde in particular cited the inflation spike that followed Russia’s inflation of Ukraine, where a baseline scenario based on higher energy prices suggest inflation for 2022 of 5.5% - but a worst-case scenario indicated more than 7% inflation, much closer to the final figure of 8%.

Another example was the pandemic, where spending by homebound consumers shifted from services like restaurants to goods such as home exercise equipment.

“Scenario analysis could have helped in illustrating that the range of possible inflation outcomes was unusually wide — and would have reduced the risk of projecting false certainty to the public,” Lagarde said.

The bank’s strategy review announced Monday reaffirmed its target of 2% for inflation, a goal it has met for the time being as annual price increases were 1.9% in May. The drop in inflation has let the bank cut its benchmark interest rate from a peak of 4% to 2%.

Threats of higher tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have added to uncertainty about the outlook for growth and inflation. The European Commission and US negotiators are trying to reach agreement on a trade deal ahead of a July 9 deadline.

The conference in Sintra is the ECB’s equivalent of the U.S. Federal Reserve gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and gathers top central bankers and economists from around the world. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to take part in a panel on Tuesday with Lagarde, Bank of England Government Andrew Bailey, Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee and Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan.

— Associated Press

Judge affirms Apple antitrust case

A federal judge on Monday rebuffed Apple’s request to throw out a U.S. government lawsuit alleging the technology trendsetter has built a maze of illegal barriers to protect the iPhone from competition and fatten its profit margins.

The 33-page opinion from U.S. District Judge Xavier Neals in New Jersey will enable an antitrust lawsuit that the U.S. Justice Department filed against Apple 15 months ago to proceed. Neals has set a timetable that could see the case come to trial in 2027.

Apple has sought to dismiss the lawsuit, arguing the Justice Department had distorted the contours of the smartphone market and made a series of other misinterpretations that warranted the case be thrown out.

The case seeks to pierce the digital fortress that Apple Inc., based in Cupertino, Calif., has built around the iPhone, iPad and other products to create a so-called “walled garden” allowing its hardware and software to mesh seamlessly for users.

The Justice Department alleges that walled garden has mostly turned into a shield against competition, creating market conditions that enable it to charge higher prices and stifle innovation.

Feds to allow HP takeover of Juniper

Hewlett Packard Enterprise has reached a settlement with the Justice Department that could clear the way for its $14 billion takeover of rival Juniper Networks.

The Justice Department had sued to block the acquisition, saying it could eliminate competition, raise prices and reduce innovation.

The settlement, which is subject to court approval, calls for Hewlett Packard Enterprise to divest its global Instant On campus and branch business. Hewlett Packard Enterprise will facilitate limited access to Juniper’s advanced Mist AIOps technology once the deal closes.

“Our agreement with the DOJ paves the way to close HPE’s acquisition of Juniper Networks and preserves the intended benefits of this deal for our customers and shareholders, while creating greater competition in the global networking market,” Antonio Neri, president and CEO of HPE, said in a statement.

Last year Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced that it was buying Juniper Networks for $40 a share in a deal expected to double HPE’s networking business. Juniper provides routers, switching gear and network security products from its headquarters in Sunnyvale, California.

Home Depot grows with GMS acquisition

Home Depot is buying specialty building products distributor GMS for $4.3 billion, the second notable acquisition in a little over a year that emphasizes a deliberate push by the home improvement chain into building and materials supply.

The acquisitions arrive as booming sales from the pandemic fade and Home Depot intensifies its focus on professional builders.

GMS Inc. of Tucker, Ga., is a distributor of specialty building products like drywall, steel framing and other supplies used in both residential and commercial projects.

— From news services